Politics The 2016 US Presidential Election

Trump is turning the Primary rulebook on its ear. He doesn't attend the debate, he has spent basically no time on the ground in Iowa, yet leads the polls.

 

A local loudmouth conservative Republican radio "personality"/host can't stop ejaculating over Cruz's win.

It looks as Hillary is in for more of a fight then she anticipated.

 

Took the words right out of my mouth!

Bernie still lives! Hillary took Iowa because she was literally luckier on some coin tosses. That's no political victory, that's chance operating in her favor.

 

I'm still split on the Sanders/Clinton choice. I have no problem with Clinton or the way they got things done in the past. Sanders has decent ideas and policies, but I don't see a huge revolution coming from the left anytime soon, especially if it means that the well-off left have to change their ways.

Bernie needs to stop begging for $3 in e-mails and start asking people to be the change they want to see in the world by doing X, Y, or Z.

Either way, the media won. They love the results and will have something to talk about now. We will see how it plays out in the other states, but if neither party has a clear cut nominee by the conventions, things are going to get really messy.

The problem with the GOP is that if Cruz wins the nomination, but loses to Clinton, I think the far right will go nuts. But, I'm not sure if Hillary could beat Cruz, Rubio, or Trump in Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. I'm not sure Sanders would win those three states either. If Cruz doesn't get the nomination and the GOP loses, you are going to have 4 more years of talk radio complaining about the GOP establishment picking RINOs and the Tea Party will grow even stronger. And unless Cruz is disqualified, he will be back in 4 years to run again.

 

I wouldnt reach much into Iowa. On the Republican side, 2/3 of the caucus voters were evangelicals. On the Democrat side, the number of caucus voters is extremely low and, this year, dominated by the more energized younger voting coming out for Bernie.

The primary calendar is front loaded pretty heavily with states with some of the largest evangelical bases on the Republican side. After NH (Bernie and Trump should win), there is SC on Feb 27 followed by states like AL (Santorum won in 2012), AR, CO (Santorum), GA, OK (Santorum), TN (Santorum), TX all on March 1 then KS (Santorum) and LA (Santorum). These are ripe pickings for Cruz's religious-based barnstorming.

And, on the Democrat side, heavy minority voters that would lean towards Hillary. Bernie still has quite an uphill battle but I hope he succeeds!
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The last poll on the Tea Party had an approval rating of 19%, the lowest since it's inception. Even many Republicans are fed up with the Tea Party's extremist, confrontational, no compromise approach.

And, as to Cruz and Rubio, I dont think Cruz could win reelection in the Senate, particularly with a strong Democrat candidate like one of the Castro brothers (Julian, current HUD secretary or Joaquin, current congressman) and Rubio is not running for reelection.

 

How did that work out for him?



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I also a bit torn between Clinton and Sanders.

Sanders has some fresh (sort of) ideas that I like, but probably doesn't have the clout and/or personality to see through the changes he wants. Most likely they would end up getting "compromised" to the point of being weak at best.

Clinton has the pull, but she'll most likely try to build a legacy in foreign relations rather than make any real changes domestically. A matter of image over substance, so to say.

 

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaassssssss!!!!!

 

Well Trump faces the problem of having a lot of supporters who are self-described "non-voters" or people who don't normally participate in the political process. So its easy to say they support Trump when they're called on the phone, but many won't actually go to the voting booth.

And if Trump ever drops out of the race, a lot of his supporters will simply not vote for anyone

 

I agree Iowa is way overrated except for providing momentum and cutting out the dead wood.

Bernie was smart in Iowa. He put considerable effort in the state focusing on the two major universities and it paid off. From the exit polls, nearly 3/4 of Dem caucus voters between 18-24 voted for Bernie.

But will he sell in the south? I hope so, but that will be a much greater hurdle.

 

I think the theoretical question for the Democrats will be, what happens when the blue states vote for Bernie, and the red states vote for Clinton. It is the same on the GOP side with the red states voting for Cruz and the blue states voting for Trump.

If your passionate base doesn't get to choose the candidate, will they be able to run a good general election? Or, does having a candidate that is more popular in the states that typically vote for the other side have a better chance at winning in November?

 

This,

I won't participate in a caucus and refuse align myself with a political party. I can piss off my neighbors some other way and find both parties offensive (not to mention their money grubbing, non-stop phone calls).

I'm basically locked out of the primary process. I'm not particularly angry or polarized. I do think that tea party, religious conservatives have gone off the deep end and will likely vote for the most moderate candidate.

 

Seems late to be still "thinking" about running.

 

Is "honorarium" Latin for purchase price?