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Ilow · 08-06-2007, 09:01 AM

Johnson is really close, but at the rate he's going, 16 wins is more than a season, if he even returns, and I don't see him pitching two more seasons. There are some young hotshots out there, so maybe someone who is under 30 with like 100 wins has a shot, but even if they have exactly 100 at age 30, they'd still need to average 20 wins a year until they are 40 to get it. Even though pitchers are coming into the bigs pretty young, if they come in at 23 and average 15 wins a season until they are 30 they have what, 105. And that's with no injuries on a decent team that doesn't blow it for them. The more I think about it, the less likely it seems...

08-06-2007, 09:01 AM	#2 (permalink)
Ilow Junkie Location: Pats country	Johnson is really close, but at the rate he's going, 16 wins is more than a season, if he even returns, and I don't see him pitching two more seasons. There are some young hotshots out there, so maybe someone who is under 30 with like 100 wins has a shot, but even if they have exactly 100 at age 30, they'd still need to average 20 wins a year until they are 40 to get it. Even though pitchers are coming into the bigs pretty young, if they come in at 23 and average 15 wins a season until they are 30 they have what, 105. And that's with no injuries on a decent team that doesn't blow it for them. The more I think about it, the less likely it seems... __________________ "Religion is the one area of our discourse in which it is considered noble to pretend to be certain about things no human being could possibly be certain about" --Sam Harris