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Old 09-25-2008, 10:51 AM   #53 (permalink)
aceventura3
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Location: Ventura County
Quote:
Originally Posted by roachboy View Post
what are "the fundamentals of the economy" anyway?
I use a number of measures, one is based on my personal observation - I call it the Eating Out Indicator.

One, what is the average wait time for getting seated at a restaurant for dinner? When the wait times trend up, the economy is growing. When the numbers trend down economic growth is going to slow. Lately the wait times have shown no change in the last 6 months, and were trending up a year ago.

Two, how often do I see help wanted signs at fast food restaurants, like McDonald's and what is the age range of the employees. I see help wanted signs every time I go out to eat lunch. The average age appears to be people in their late teens or early twenties with a few older people here and there. In California, while I lived there I saw an interesting trend - starting wages above minimum wage and more and more older people (usually immigrants not proficient in the english language) working in fast food. This was telling me that there was a trend away from middle class teens needing jobs - times were good/booming during most of the time I was there.

Please understand I am weird, I pay attention to these things and I have been doing it for decades. My indicators are just as good as the people featured on CNBC or in financial magazines. I remember reading a book written by a guy featured all over the place were he said the DOW would hit 40,000 by 2016, seems a bit far fetched today.
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