Regarding coincident indicators:
- Industrial production between November 2009 and November 2010 increased by over 5%, while capacity was virtually unchanged (-0.3%).
- Personal incomes are climbing (albeit slowly), by as much as 0.5% per month since the summer.
- Recent retail sales are showing an increasing consumer confidence since the summer. The post-holiday analysis will be telling.
- The estimated GDP growth from the second quarter is 1.7%, while the third-quarter estimate is sitting at 2.6%. Modest, but it's growth.
The above four points highlight what's going on in the economy
right now, unlike what simply looking at unemployment numbers will do. If anything, looking at the above will help estimate what might happen with employment in the future. And on top of that you have recovering markets. What does this all add up to? How is any of this smoke and mirrors?
With regard to the unemployment rate, at least it has appeared to have stabilized. And I know much hinges on the global economy. There will certainly be some aftershocks for the next while, which is why I think after 2011, we'll have a better idea what things are doing.
Oh, and durable goods orders have been up more than down this year.