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The idea is that if the US left now with just direct elections we would be planting the seeds for conflict in the region that would rivial the isreali/palastinian conflict. The shites would gain power and repress the minorities causing massive conflict and probably end up splitting the country into 3 regious each wanting to be autonomous. The land disputes would lead to fighting much like isreal/palistine or pakistan/india (look at Kashmir).
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