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Thought Exercise - real unemployment

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by genuinemommy, Feb 18, 2021.

  1. genuinemommy

    genuinemommy Moderator Staff Member

    How many people are really out of work right now in the USA? Not just looking for work, but not employed?
    How many people apply to any given open position?
    How many people with skills that are in high demand are even interviewed?
    How many of these are women?

    Really, how many highly skilled women do you see taking positions of power? Does being a woman have anything to do with unemployment? Because I feel like it does.

    How does the current unemployment impact politics?

    I am really amazed at how many applications are being submitted for a position that I'm fielding applications for - a position that doesn't even really have funding yet and that may never be funded. And I wonder how many of these people will not get chosen for anything and will still be out of work this summer. I am left wondering how many job listings are like this - there isn't really a job there yet but there might be and we won't know until the last second so therefore it's listed.

    And these applications aren't easy. What a waste of everyone's time.

    Share thoughts on the topic. Experiences, news articles, what-not.
    • Useful Useful x 1
  2. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

    Large City, TX
    For the time being
    I can only add this. Statistics clearly show women are lagging behind in reemployment. The US hasn't seen unemployment for women this low since the 1980s. The women are staying home dealing with children, schooling, and COVID-19.

    I don't know what the drop is from 2019 and 2020.

    There are numerous articles on the net.
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  3. genuinemommy

    genuinemommy Moderator Staff Member

    • Like Like x 1
  4. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    There's a huge adjustment and change happening due to the pandemic.
    Some jobs won't come back...some will be automated, some will change to remote, etc.
    Many will have to retrain, reskill, reorient...build a rep in a different role.

    Millions of jobs probably aren’t coming back, even after the pandemic ends

    But this is pessimistic...People will find jobs
    It will be just like after a recession...an employers' market, lots of competition

    I think the key here is those that hustle hard.
    And be VERY flexible.

    The pandemic hurt many roles filled often by predominately women.
    Unfortunately, due to poor bias...they're often first to let go, not to keep, last or slow to hire.

    The roles that increased were in IT
    Computers jumped as everyone went remote, on the internet and a need for automation instead of humans.

    Any job that is around a volume of people will be hit. (restaurants, events, factories, etc)
    Any job that can be done remote, isolation or in controlled/spaced areas will increase.

    A person can't say...I don't know that, I can't do this, I haven't done it.
    They have to keep diving in...and say, I CAN do that. Think outside the box.
    They have to be aggressive and put it out everywhere.

    And it doesn't matter what gender...it's a do or die attitude.
    Gotta be bold. Can't be passive.

    Do NOT put your eggs in one basket
    Spitball...try your best, move on
    Be ready for any role. Even in a new industry or vertical
    Realize that most descriptions are wishlists

    Be aware...MANY companies and employers are having to change ALSO
    It's not just workers.
    Businesses are in a try or die mode too.

    Again, flexibility and hustling are the keys.
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2021
  5. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Foggy Bottom
    The "real" unemployment rate is much higher than the "official" unemployment rate used by the Dept of Labor/Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the measure needs a significant overhaul.

    BLS currently has six measure of the current unemployment rate: the "official" measure (U-3) and five alternative measures.

    U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
    U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
    U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);
    U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;
    U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and
    U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

    Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

    The U-3 unemployment rate is generally the only rate the public hears about or sees in government news releases and media reports.

    From the above link, the "official U-3 unemployment rate last month was 6.3%; the real rate is probably somewhere between the U-5 rate (7.4%) and closer to the U-6 rate (11.1%). At the worst of the pandemic, the U-6 rate was at 23% or nearly 1 out of 4 workers in the US were unemployed.
    • Informative Informative x 2
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  6. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Where ever I roam
    I am sure that unemployment is much higher than those statistics. Usually this time of year after a Presidential change to a different party, they want to "correct" the numbers so they can say they improved them later on.

    Covid screwed up my job plans, as I did want to take some time off after my last job, but not this long. But, I haven't cared to even look or apply for any indoor job in the past 12 months. I don't really want to wear my P100 respirator indoors everywhere due to a airborne virus, but I did have to wear one sometimes at my previous job... It just isn't worth it until after I get vaccinated.

    And my attitude towards jobs is pretty much summed up in the Office Space movie. Although I look at the YouTubers, OnlyFan girls, bitcoin miners, and corrupt politicians making millions and think why should I get up at 7am and get home at 6pm 250 days a year just to end up with a few extra dollars at the end of the year...

    And the weird thing is that while I don't spend lots of money, I don't really know if I am "rich" or "poor". Too many people brag about the money they make, but end up living paycheck to paycheck. Most of my expenses are to insurance companies, even though I do fear the unknown bad event or accident that wipes out any savings and investments I do have.
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  7. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

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  8. ralphie250

    ralphie250 Fully Erect

    At work..
    their shouldnt be a difference in "real" and "official"
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    • Agree Agree x 2
  9. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    And a Followup from before on positivity
    Thanks, Biden

    I personally think, it’s not going to really get going until end of Summer

    That’s when most will have their shot and it has sunk in

    And then cross your fingers, that no variant comes around
    But we already are aware, won’t be caught with our pants down
    (At least about THIS sucker...can’t guarantee anything else...we tend to be oblivious and likely still haven’t learned our lesson)

    I still say, the best way is
    1. Make yourself a commodity
    2. Be in an area with lots of options
    3. Hustle and try almost anything
    • Like Like x 2
  10. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Where ever I roam
    I would guess that there are plenty of 60+ year olds who got a taste of retirement and realized they might not have that much time left and want to get out of the work life. And for some reason the stock market didn't crash, so companies have some capital to try and expand. Now, many jobs might not be coming back right away, but I would guess that there are also a lot of deferred plans that will now be green lit.
    • Like Like x 2
  11. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    I think anyone that’s smart
    Will realize that the other positions aren’t returning
    But then move into industries, verticals and businesses that are actually stable, if not growing.

    Actually, many businesses themselves had to change or die or hurt...radically so.
    So it’s not just the employees that have to flex.

    Management itself was under pressure
    Some good came out of it, some bad.

    I think of this like a volcano
    And the wildlife has to adjust or fade away

    Funny, I don’t get upset at changing gigs
    I just get worn by all the mean & manipulation while in the job.

    Everyone has their strengths and weaknesses
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  12. genuinemommy

    genuinemommy Moderator Staff Member

    The women who stepped away from their careers to care for their children or parents during the pandemic are going to face an uphill battle.
    --- Double Post Merged, Aug 22, 2021, Original Post Date: Mar 12, 2021 ---
    Events of the past few weeks keep reminding me that I am technically unemployed right now.
    I am a fellow. I have a living stipend and health insurance. But I am no one's employee. I am a guest who gets to use the facilities in my workplace. I do not have coworkers or a boss. I have mentors and people who manage my grant. I supervise interns and yet I have no real authority over them.

    I am badly underpaid. I have been trying to find other employment opportunities that would keep me local. I am trying to bring in funding that will cover the cost of what should be my salary when my fellowship here is complete.

    It is odd fitting into this strange little space between employment and unemployment. I am not a contractor. But I signed a contract that prohibits me from holding a secondary income while having this role.

    I guess I would qualify as "underemployed".
    • Agree Agree x 3
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  13. fflowley

    fflowley Don't just do something, stand there!

    Thats an interesting type of fellowship.
    During my fellowship I was certainly employed, and I had many bosses as well as structured supervisory and teaching responsibilities.
    My activities by the hour, day and week were largely determined by others.
    And I received regular formal evaluations from the program director.
    One thing we have in common though is it was the worst paying real job I ever had!
    I worked my tail off, crazy hours, and got paid very little.
    Internship and residency don’t pay very much and then I took a pay cut for fellowship!
    • Informative Informative x 1
  14. genuinemommy

    genuinemommy Moderator Staff Member

    I am honestly a bit jealous.
    I might ask others in our program about their experiences.
    --- Double Post Merged, Aug 22, 2021, Original Post Date: Aug 22, 2021 ---
    @pig has a PhD. He spent some time at a National Lab. Pig, when you were a postdoc, what was your experience like? More like @fflowley or more like mine? Did you have a fellowship at all to support your work?
  15. pig

    pig Slightly Tilted Donor

    mommy :

    I did two postdocs, and I'd say they ranged between those experiences. At USC I was in a "non-traditional" post-doc where I honestly ram about 70% of my advisor/boss' lab and then had specific research obligations that were centered around start-up company support, not publication. I wasn't pursuing tenure-track professorships from that vantage point. I was in am official relationship with the university and I had health insurance and I think I received a W2 tax form.

    Afterwards, I did a post doc at the national lab and was still working on start up companies. I was a subcontractor reputed through a company that essentially existed only for that purpose. I received a W-2 tax form, but at work was technically a subcontract employee. We were highly expendable, but because the national lab was itself a subcontractor to the federal government it was a pretty secure job. Compared to other national labs, the retention rate of post docs going full time employee was and I think is very high.

    I think that job was only available for maybe 3 or so years before you had to either go full time or go elsewhere.

    Levels of support ranged by your line of management and division, but most of the time we were treated with false equivalence. When it was convenient we were near-equal experts and I think I was given maybe 3 or 5 False Management Titles (Project Lead: Environmental Reactivity, Group Lead: Kinetic Measurements) that had no reality in the org chain, had no salary increase or real authority.

    It was a useful experience. At the national lab we were underpaid, but compared to the university we were paid well.

    I eventually went full time for about 5 years, and then realized I was miserable.

    I know it's a little like a broken record, but the reality is that during that entire period I was experiencing severe alcohol use disorder and co-occurring mental health challenges that I was more or less ignorant of. I don't know if I would have enjoyed it more bad I gotten into recovery then. People make good money in a community with a low cost of living and a job with reasonably low stress.
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  16. genuinemommy

    genuinemommy Moderator Staff Member

    Snippet from a relevant article:
    "...many of America's most respected businesses are turning away millions of qualified applicants for no good reason at all. But that's just what recent research found
    "88 percent of employers the researchers spoke to agreed that qualified candidates are vetted out of the process because they do not match the exact criteria in the job description.
    "...struggling to fill the position for weeks or months, maybe your fancy hiring software is a false economy."
    Full piece here: New Harvard Research: In the Middle of the Great Resignation, Employers Are Rejecting Millions of Qualified Workers
    • Agree Agree x 2
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  17. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    The problem is often this...
    The description is a wish list of items from laypeople, execs and HR...with unrealistic expectations mixed in.
    I've doing this crap for 30+ years in my field at the HIGHEST levels and I'm know as the Jack Of All Trades (mgmt's words not mine)
    And I'd have to be 150 yo to add up all the years experience they want for everything they list (even IF overlapping) :rolleyes:

    You need knowledgeable and experienced people reviewing and interviewing resumes & candidates (unfortunately, these same are VERY busy)
    Not Recruiters (just used car salesmen). not HR (love paper, no knowhow outside their own job), even mgrs are often just politicians and placeholders.
    Much less ego and bias block good choices.
    Panels are useful but also can have bad players being territorial or with an agenda.

    Job hunting is a crapshoot.
    You end up spitballing jobs to get your foot in the door.
    Any port in a storm...much less what you want.

    Hiring reps and mgrs are just plain narrowminded and selfish - often enough.

    The key to job hunt.
    Diligence, tenacity, smile always, see what works & what doesn't AND don't pigeonhole yourself.
    What do you WANT? What can you DO? Title are moot, lists are arbitary, time spent id relative. You've got to just have FAITH in yourself.
    It's not cocky, it's just you know what you CAN do. They don't.

    And THAT will get you on the job faster than anything else. Confidence.
    People, even VIPs, feed on that good energy. :cool:
  18. boink

    boink Slightly Tilted

    I don't know a lot about job hunting today.
    A friend asked me, or was telling me about her daughters job search after college and how disheartening it is to submit aps to the algorithm, actually layers of algorithms.

    She mentioned who she was trying to get on with, a used architectural element store...aka junk shop with cool and curious stuff of many types, a recycler of sorts.

    I said, just go there and ask for an interview !
    Show your face ! Give off your positive enthusiastic vibe !
    So, she did. Got the job no prob.

    I know that can't possibly work in tons of situations but if it's at all possible that's what I'd do and what I have done all my working life.
    I work with 5 full time and one part time co workers including the shop owner and we all depend on each other. Our skills overlap but we are all best at certain aspects.
    I have no understanding of working in giant corporate situations. Only work where what we do ends up as actual phisical reality. Meaning if you need a railing or fireplace surround, we make what your designer wants for you, and install it. No chance to hide it if it brakes or dosn't fit.
    In my world if you can't build it right or do your part in the build correctly your useless at best and generate lots of extra work at worst.
    If we have a deadline to install then we make it happen if it takes till midnight the day before.
    You can't hide with only 5 people. You can't drop the ball cause it can crush your foot or a coworkers foot literally.
    There's just no way to float a bunch of politics with just 5 people. We aren't perfect but our individual shortcomings outweigh our ability and loyalty to each other and the shop as a whole. I could draft on paper, cut weld grind and do finishing work as well as install. That's all the jobs in the whole shop except billing and accounting.
    I'm not sure how you maintain that sence of value and purpose in a giant organization. I don't know how you gain a feeling of satisfaction from reams of words and numbers. Seems like most of all that just floats off into the eather and disipates into non existence like the data that was on the hard drive when the power brick fell out of the socket.

    I don't know if that sheds light or helps but to boil it down I'd suggest looking at very small working situations. So, very small independent organizations.
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