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Old 02-04-2010, 08:00 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Do you think it will pass?

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View: Poll: Americans Doubtful Health Overhaul Will Pass
Source: Prescriptions: NYTimes.com
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Poll: Americans Doubtful Health Overhaul Will Pass
February 3, 2010, 6:45 pm

By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
Most Americans think health care legislation is doomed, according to a survey released Wednesday by the Pew Research Center. But a growing, if still small, percentage of people are becoming more optimistic that it may pass.

In the survey, conducted from Jan. 29 to Feb. 1, 60 percent of those polled said they thought health care legislation would not pass this year. That is fewer than the 67 percent who said just after a special Senate election last month in Massachusetts that health care would not pass.



Among those who have been following the debate closely, there was even a stronger sign of optimism. Right after the Massachusetts election, only 23 percent of that group thought the legislation would pass. Last week, 35 percent said it would pass.

Still, the results are a stark reversal from mid-January, when 57 percent of all respondents said they thought legislation would pass this year and 33 percent said it would not.

Hopes for the legislation’s passage were highest in late December, when the Senate finally passed its health care bill. Those hopes stayed relatively high until Jan. 19, when Scott Brown, a Republican, won the Senate seat long held by Edward M. Kennedy. Mr. Brown’s election deprives Democrats of their supermajority in the Senate, and he has vowed to oppose health care legislation.

After the election, the percentage of those who thought health care would pass this year plunged to 27 percent.

The poll of 1,020 adults throughout the country had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
I don't think it will pass. I never thought it would pass. I figured it was a good chance to happen, but I see too many issues for it to pass as it was written.

I'm all for insurance reform and cost controls of some sort.
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Old 02-04-2010, 09:43 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cynthetiq View Post

I'm all for insurance reform and cost controls of some sort.
Do you think that a better bill would come along in the next 20 years if this fails?

The Republicans won't reform insurance companies or do anything substantial. They want everyone to buy health insurance from North Dakota (low/no taxes, corporation friendly courts), and to have us have Health Savings Accounts (that I have). And to limit damages I can get if the doctor makes a big mistake.

If this was going to be called a socialist bill, at least it could have had some socialist things in it. At least incentivize people to be healthy.
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Old 02-04-2010, 10:11 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Something will pass... after it's been neutered to all hell. It'll be of little value and smell horribly of pork.
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Old 02-05-2010, 06:25 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Isn't saying its healthcare reform a bit off the mark? Its really more directed at the insurance industry and has less to do with the actual care being provided - other than increasing (over time) access to care. I am terribly disappointed that there was no initiative for improving health and well being through wellness programs, smoking cessation and better nutrition. This country is becoming obese and that alone will cause health care costs to sky rocket in the years ahead and little is being done about that.

For various personal reasons, I agree with many of the programs key points however those are all insurance issues. Yes, something needs to change. I'm not sure this is it, though. But until the final compromise bill is reached, who knows what it will be.
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Old 02-05-2010, 02:26 PM   #5 (permalink)
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We need a change, but I, as a (mostly) right wing supporter, am glad that it (probably) won't pass. Obama's aggressive socialist reforms scare the hell out of me.
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Old 02-05-2010, 02:46 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Pearl Trade View Post
We need a change, but I, as a (mostly) right wing supporter, am glad that it (probably) won't pass. Obama's aggressive socialist reforms scare the hell out of me.
Can you elaborate on that? Why does it scare you? What result are you afraid of?

Given that pretty much the entire developed world apart from the US has public health care in one form or another and hasn't imploded because of it, this perspective seems a bit odd to me.

I hope for your sake that you guys get something in place. On the other hand, if the American public as a whole decides that publicly funded healthcare is a bad thing, I suppose it's not my place to tell them otherwise.
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Old 02-05-2010, 09:10 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Can you elaborate on that? Why does it scare you? What result are you afraid of?

Given that pretty much the entire developed world apart from the US has public health care in one form or another and hasn't imploded because of it, this perspective seems a bit odd to me.

I hope for your sake that you guys get something in place. On the other hand, if the American public as a whole decides that publicly funded healthcare is a bad thing, I suppose it's not my place to tell them otherwise.
The costs are through the roof. I'll be paying for it in the years to come and so will my future children. I want to pay for MY health, not someone elses.
The whole idea of a "government takeover" doesnt sit well with me, as I believe that less government=better government.
I think we should be able to choose our own doctors and our own plans.

I think Obama is quickly fucking up America, in a very general sense. Money is a big issue, and he seems to throw it around way too easily.
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Old 02-05-2010, 09:44 PM   #8 (permalink)
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I'm undecided on this.

On one hand, the government screws up just about everything it gets its hands on. Bloated payrolls, endless paperwork and red tape, cost over runs, duplication of jobs, etc.

On the other, I'd be in a pretty good position to get a union government job. They are going to need health care workers. M-F, no weekends, no holidays, overly generous benefit packages...
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Old 02-05-2010, 09:54 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I'm curious to know what you make of things like this National Geographic chart in that context:

Health care spending per capita vs. Life Expectancy, National Geographic   click to show 


It seems that the WHO, OECD and virtually every other reputable institute agrees that a public and universal healthcare system is far less expensive than the private institution currently in place in the US.

As a Canadian, I'm free to choose my own doctor. If the doctor I go to isn't to my liking, it's a trivial matter to look in the phone book and find another (well, disregarding any shortage, which is not a funding issue).

Your ideological issues are your own, and I won't try to debate such things.
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Old 02-05-2010, 11:21 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Pearl Trade View Post
The costs are through the roof. I'll be paying for it in the years to come and so will my future children. I want to pay for MY health, not someone elses.
The whole idea of a "government takeover" doesnt sit well with me, as I believe that less government=better government.
I think we should be able to choose our own doctors and our own plans.

I think Obama is quickly fucking up America, in a very general sense. Money is a big issue, and he seems to throw it around way too easily.
Insurance, by definition, means that you are paying for someone else's health, and vice versa.

The proposed health care reform doesn't involve a "government takeover," nor does it preclude anyone from choosing a doctor or a plan.

In fact, this is one of those interesting things, where people proclaim to be against the healthcare reform if asked in general terms, but mostly for it when people actually learn what is involved in the proposal:

http://www.kff.org/kaiserpolls/upload/8042-F.pdf

Page 5 has a breakdown of popularity of each element of the bill.

Page 9 shows that the a good chunk of the people have no idea of what is in the bill.
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Old 02-06-2010, 04:36 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Pearl Trade View Post
The whole idea of a "government takeover" doesnt sit well with me, as I believe that less government=better government.
I think we should be able to choose our own doctors and our own plans.
I completely agree with this; if we lacked the ability to pick our doctors it would feel like we're bulk foods being shuffled down an assembly line. However, that's recently what's happened to me. I have no idea who I should pick, and somehow the ER doctor picked a guy which led to others being picked for other related parts of my repair. Very little's gone wrong; at all. And I actually get along with each of them quite well.
So it sounds scary for its lack of control, but I think it's simply dependent on the health community where you live.
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Old 02-06-2010, 06:04 AM   #12 (permalink)
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The things people are scared about aren't IN the bill. Nobody's going to take away your choice of doctor, and your choice of plan will be made broader, easier, and cheaper, not more limited.

If the bill goes down, it's not because it's a bad bill (though it is a shadow of what I'd like to see it be). It's because people are swallowing the lies being told about it from the right wing.
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Old 02-06-2010, 10:31 AM   #13 (permalink)
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The government needs to get out of the insurance business altogether. Including medicaid and medicare. The real solution comes with subsidizing hospitals. Forget about paying these massive insurance companies more money to deny claims and fuck their customers, forget $100000+ doctors bills that haunt and plague you for the rest of your life. Lower the cost of healthcare and the insurance companies have to become competitive to survive. if I could go without health insurance and just pay out of pocket $50/year to go to the annual checkup, and just pay out of pocket for health needs in general without being raked over the coals over the slightest hospital or doctors visit, I'd do it in a second. but the outrageous prices that these places charge are really the root cause of the whole problem. forget government insurance - subsidize the hospitals and the problem solves itself. want cheaper healthcare? then make healthcare cheaper!

PS did anyone else notice that the above graph is rather phallic shaped? no? ok then
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Old 02-06-2010, 11:04 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by raging moderate View Post
The government needs to get out of the insurance business altogether. Including medicaid and medicare. The real solution comes with subsidizing hospitals. Forget about paying these massive insurance companies more money to deny claims and fuck their customers, forget $100000+ doctors bills that haunt and plague you for the rest of your life. Lower the cost of healthcare and the insurance companies have to become competitive to survive. if I could go without health insurance and just pay out of pocket $50/year to go to the annual checkup, and just pay out of pocket for health needs in general without being raked over the coals over the slightest hospital or doctors visit, I'd do it in a second. but the outrageous prices that these places charge are really the root cause of the whole problem. forget government insurance - subsidize the hospitals and the problem solves itself. want cheaper healthcare? then make healthcare cheaper!
Perhaps I'm missing something here, but what you seem to be proposing is essentially a single payer system with a co-pay.
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Old 02-07-2010, 07:23 PM   #15 (permalink)
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I'm not sure about the terminology but in a nutshell I think healthcare should just be affordable, no insurance necessary. This could be made possible thru subsidies and regulation of what are now for- profit medical facilities
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Old 02-07-2010, 09:45 PM   #16 (permalink)
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having watched my father go through the VA medical system, I am scared shitless of the govenrment taking control of healthcare.... and further, if they do, then this half assed bill is not going to fix a damn thing- Everyone must be insured, but no public option- excuse me, but it seems like the only winner is the insurance industry - I would prefer that if they are going to do it, at least go all the way.....
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Old 02-08-2010, 01:44 AM   #17 (permalink)
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There has been such a huge fixation on both the public option and the individual mandate that most people seem to have the ignored fact that the totally uncontroversial parts of Obama's plan will completely revolutionize the system. Even if the public option and the individual mandate remain dead for all time, the remaining parts of the proposal will still give us the most sweeping healthcare reform the country has ever seen. There are a number of things already embraced by most Republicans which will be real game-changers.


1) Creation of a national health insurance exchange to allow individuals and small businesses to buy coverage across state lines.

2) Large new tax credits for individuals and businesses who buy coverage.

3) Ending discrimination against people with pre-existing conditions.

4) Prohibiting insurers from cancelling coverage when people get sick.

5) Eliminating the current practice of charging people extra fees for preventive care.

6) Capping total out-of-pocket costs to individuals so that getting treatment won't drive people into bankruptcy.

7) Closing the "donut-hole" gap in prescription drug coverage.

8) Taking up medical malpractice reform at the federal level. Until now, it's always been done piecemeal on a state-by-state basis with many states doing little to curb lawsuit abuse.


When the Democrats finally realize that the public option and the individual mandate are not going to pass in this Congress they will drop them so they can get all these other changes passed. Most Republicans in Congress support the reforms listed above. These things are not small potatoes. It will happen before the fall elections.
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Old 02-08-2010, 01:44 PM   #18 (permalink)
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...smell horribly of pork.
This makes no sense to me. This is like saying, "It drives as horribly as a Porsche." or "Catherine Bell is flat."

Neeways, the US will have universal healthcare eventually, probably within the lifetimes of the relatively younger TFPers, but this time around the bill that undoubtedly will be will be entirely useless.
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