Election market - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Yakk · 12-01-2005, 09:22 AM

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA06/index.php

1$ buys you one share in each of "Liberal Majority", "Conservative Majority" and "Other outcome".

The payout is 1$ per share of what happens, or 0$ per share of nothing happening.

Or, 1$ buys you a share of all of L, NDP, C, B and O popular vote. The payout is the fraction of the popular vote any share you own gets.

Or, 1$ buys you a share of all of L, NDP, C, B and O seat count. The payout is the fraction of seats any share you own gets.

This is a research attempt to apply the powers of a market economy to predicting elections. Sort of neat. You can look at the results of the BC election prediction that they ran.

The money being traded is real.

12-01-2005, 09:22 AM	#1 (permalink)
Yakk Wehret Den Anfängen! Location: Ontario, Canada	Election market http://esm.ubc.ca/CA06/index.php 1$ buys you one share in each of "Liberal Majority", "Conservative Majority" and "Other outcome". The payout is 1$ per share of what happens, or 0$ per share of nothing happening. Or, 1$ buys you a share of all of L, NDP, C, B and O popular vote. The payout is the fraction of the popular vote any share you own gets. Or, 1$ buys you a share of all of L, NDP, C, B and O seat count. The payout is the fraction of seats any share you own gets. This is a research attempt to apply the powers of a market economy to predicting elections. Sort of neat. You can look at the results of the BC election prediction that they ran. The money being traded is real. __________________ Last edited by JHVH : 10-29-4004 BC at 09:00 PM. Reason: Time for a rest.