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Old 11-07-2006, 07:23 PM   #1 (permalink)
Deja Moo
 
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Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
Close races that would bring balance

These are the races that I have been watching that have the potential of bringing back a two party balance in the House and Senate. Early results are coming in, but I'm waiting for the fat lady. If you have recent updates or another race that we should watch, please post it in this topic.

THIS IS A SERIOUS TOPIC: MOCKERY AND OTHER FORMS OF BS WILL EARN A REPORT POST

Arizona Senate:
Jim Pederson (D) CNN
Jon Kyl (R)

Arizona 1st:
Ellen Simon (D)
Rick Renzi (R)

Arizona 5th:
Harry Mitchell (D) CNN
J.D. Hayworth (R)

Arizona 8th:
Gabrielle Giffords (D) CNN
Randy Graf (R)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

California 4th:
Charlie Brown (D)
John Doolittle (R)

California 11th:
Jerry McNerney (D)
Richard Pombo (R)

California 50th:
Francine Busby (D)
Brian Bilbray (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colorado 4th:
Angie Paccione (D)
Marilyn Musgrave (R)

Colorado 5th:
Jay Fawcett (D)
Doug Lamborn (R)

Colorado 7th:
Ed Perlmutter (D)
Rick O'Donnell (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Connecticut Senate:
Ned Lamont (D)
Joe Lieberman (I) WON

Connecticut 2nd:
Joe Courtney (D)
Rob Simmons (R)

Connecticut 4th:
Diane Farrell (D)
Chris Shays (R) CNN

Connecticut 5th:
Chris Murphy (D) CNN
Nancy Johnson (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Florida 9th:
Phyllis Busansky (D)
Gus Bilirakis (R)

Florida 13th:
Christine Jennings (D)
Vern Buchanan (R)

Florida 16th:
Tim Mahoney (D) WON
Mark Foley/Joe Negron (R)

Florida 22nd:
Ron Klein (D) CNN
Clay Shaw (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Idaho 1st:
Larry Grant (D)
Bill Sali (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Illinois 6th:
Tammy Duckworth (D)
Peter Roskam (R) CNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Iowa 1st:
Bruce Braley (D) CNN
Mike Whalen (R)

Iowa 2nd:
Dave Loebsack (D)
Jim Leach (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana 2nd:
Joe Donnelly (D) CNN
Chris Chocola (R)

Indiana 8th:
Brad Ellsworth (D) CNN
John Hostettler (R)

Indiana 9th:
Baron Hill (D) CNN
Mike Sodrel (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky 3rd:
John Yarmuth (D) CNN
Anne Northup (R)

Kentucky 4th:
Ken Lucas (D) CNN
Geoff Davis (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maryland Senate:
Ben Cardin (D) CNN
Michael Steele (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota Senate:
Amy Klobuchar (D) WON
Mark Kennedy (R)

Minnesota 1st:
Tim Walz (D) CNN
Gil Gutknecht (R)

Minnesota 2nd:
Coleen Rowley (D)
John Kline (R)

Minnesota 6th:
Patty Wetterling (D)
Michele Bachmann (R) CNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Missouri Senate:
Claire McCaskill (D) WON
Jim Talent (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Montana Senate:
Jon Tester (D) CNN
Conrad Burns (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nebraska Senate:
Nelson (D) CNN
Ricketts (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nevada 2nd:
Jill Derby (D)
Dean Heller (R)

Nevada 3rd:
Tessa Hafen (D)
Jon Porter (R) CNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hampshire 2nd:
Paul Hodes (D) CNN
Charles Bass (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Jersey 7th:
Linda Stender (D)
Mike Ferguson (R)

New Jersey Senate:
Bob Menendez (D)CNN
Tom Kean, Jr. (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Mexico 1st:
Patricia Madrid (D)
Heather Wilson (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York 19th
John Hall (D)
Sue Kelly (R)

New York 20th:
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) CNN
John Sweeney (R)

New York 24th:
Michael Arcuri (D) CNN
Ray Meier (R)

New York 25th:
Dan Maffei (D)
James Walsh (R) CNN

New York 26th:
Jack Davis (D)
Tom Reynolds (R) CNN

New York 29th:
Eric Massa (D)
Randy Kuhl (R) CNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Carolina 8th:
Larry Kissell (D)
Robin Hayes (R)

North Carolina 11th:
Heath Shuler (D) CNN
Charles Taylor (R)

North Carolina Senate:
Schuler (D)
Taylor (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ohio 1st:
John Cranley (D)
Steve Chabot (R) CNN

Ohio 2nd:
Victoria Wulsin (D)
Jean Schmidt (R) CNN

Ohio 12th:
Bob Shamansky (D)
Pat Tiberi (R)

Ohio 15th:
Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
Deborah Pryce (R)

Ohio 18th:
Zack Space (D) CNN
Joy Padgett (R)

Ohio Senate:
Sherrod Brown (D) WON
Mike DeWine (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pennsylvania 4th:
Jason Altmire (D) CNN
Melissa Hart (R)

Pennsylvania 6th:
Lois Murphy (D)
Jim Gerlach (R)

Pennsylvania 7th:
Joe Sestak (D) CNN
Curt Weldon (R)

Pennsylvania 8th:
Patrick Murphy (D)
Mike Fitzpatrick (R)

Pennsylvania 10th:
Chris Carney (D) CNN
Don Sherwood (R)

Pennsylvania Senate:
Bob Casey (D) WON
Rick Santorum(R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rhode Island Senate:
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) CNN
Lincoln Chafee (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tennesee Senate:
Ford (D)
Corker (R) CNN

Texas 22nd:
Nick Lampson (D) CNN
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Virginia 2nd:
Phil Kellam (D)
Thelma Drake (R) CNN

Virginia Senate:
Jim Webb (D)
George Allen(R) RECOUNT REQUIRED

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington 5th:
Peter Goldmark (D)
Cathy McMorris (R)

Washington 8th:
Darcy Burner (D)
Dave Reichert (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wisconsin 8th:
Steve Kagen (D)
John Gard (R)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last edited by Elphaba; 11-08-2006 at 12:13 AM..
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Old 11-07-2006, 07:30 PM   #2 (permalink)
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One thing to point out with the Maryland races is that there are an unusually large number of absentee ballots out there this year, something on the order of 100,000 to 150,000 I believe, based on the Republican Governor's concerns over problems in the primary elections with the electronic machines.

So, depending on the final spread tomorrow morning, the Senate race listed might not be known for another week or more.
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Old 11-07-2006, 07:35 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Excellent point dj. Oregon and Washington are primarily mail in, and our troups overseas will all be absentee ballots. We won't know much of anything for some days to come.
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Old 11-07-2006, 07:39 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elphaba
California 4th:
Charlie Brown (D)
Good greif (not meant as mockery, and if Charles Brown is reading this on TFP, I mean that with all due respect).

All humor aside, I am waiting with great interest for the nation wide results. I hope that voter turn out is as good everywhere as it was in my little berg (the 10th largest city in the US).
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Old 11-07-2006, 07:42 PM   #5 (permalink)
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They are saying Baltimore had a record turnout as well (since it's about 8-1 Democrat, not too good in my mind )
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Old 11-07-2006, 07:44 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Let's not forget the Tennesee Senate race.
Honestly, I think that the House organization is a foregone conclusion for the Democrats. Same story with the gubernatorial elections where the Dems will spread their majority. The Senate is where it's at kids and it's going to be decided in Virginia, Tennesee, Missouri, Montana, and a possible black horse in Arizona.
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Old 11-07-2006, 07:56 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) WON
Called by all the major polls, he has an ~10% lead with 54% of the precincts counted.
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:04 PM   #8 (permalink)
Deja Moo
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robodog
Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) WON
Called by all the major polls, he has an ~10% lead with 54% of the precincts counted.
Has DeWine conceded?
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:07 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Michael Barone...foxnews election analyst, evaluated the Webb vs. Allen senate
race in VA, a few minutes ago. Although Allen is leading by one percent, 28,000 votes with about 90 percent of the vote counted, Barone was of the opinion that the unreported vote from 3 heavily populated African-American precincts would be enough to put the VA senate contest into a result as close as FLA
2000 Bush vs. Gore....he predicts at least a 36 day recount delay before the Webb. vs. Allen result will be known.

Brit Huime and another fox talking head, then declared that there were no reports of impropriety in Virginia that would effect the vote....ha ha ha !!:
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ne...nG=Search+News

foxnews just reported Schuler over 8 term incumbant Taylor (R-NC), for the house seat in western NC. My repub inlaws live in that district...so I've taken an interest. In that beautiful, mountainous forested area, the home of the Vanderbilt estate and Pisgah national forest, Taylor was known as "chainsaw Charlie", because of his own. sometime secret real estate holdings, support for developers and lumber companies. Taylor is the only private US citizen to own a majority stake in a bank in Russia, and his partners in the NC bank that he controls, are serving prison terms.

Schuler is a 34 year old conservative dem....baptist, ex-NFL QB who never lived up to expectations, considering his athletic talent....
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:13 PM   #10 (permalink)
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The talking heads have proclaimed that the Democrats have taken the House.
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:19 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elphaba
Has DeWine conceded?
Yes he has
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:22 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Also hasn't the New Jersey Senate race been called for Menedez?

I'm personally interested in Nebraska. Most of that interest comes from it being my home state, but a lot of it comes from the "What's the Matter with Kansas?" perspective. The house races, in that state, are amazingly close so far with a Dem actually ahead in one. It's been a long time since they've had a Dem House member (1958 in one of the close districts where the Rep candidate is slightly leading). As a historical note it's interesting, but as a practical matter it seems like this (along with results in Indiana and Ohio) seem to be showing a Midwest shift away from bold red to more of a purple (thats a mix of red & blue for you non-art people). The implications of such a move could be huge as the Midwest has always been a strong measure of where the Christian working class are leaning.
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:24 PM   #13 (permalink)
Deja Moo
 
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Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
Quote:
Originally Posted by robodog
Yes he has
Updated to a win.

Catching up with the posted requests.

Last edited by Elphaba; 11-07-2006 at 08:29 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:35 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elphaba
The talking heads have proclaimed that the Democrats have taken the House.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MuadDib
Honestly, I think that the House organization is a foregone conclusion for the Democrats.
Yay! I was right and have equal intelligence to the vast majority of America who also saw this coming.
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:38 PM   #15 (permalink)
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I just wanted to point out that the gubernatorial races are extremely interesting - it's looking like a true Dem landslide. Considering the track record of former Governors becoming presidents, this election could be fertile ground for talent cultivation.
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:42 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ubertuber
I just wanted to point out that the gubernatorial races are extremely interesting - it's looking like a true Dem landslide. Considering the track record of former Governors becoming presidents, this election could be fertile ground for talent cultivation.
In the case of the Maryland governor's race, if the landslide encompasses it, I hope in the name of all that is good and holy in the world you aren't right with the President comment.
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:45 PM   #17 (permalink)
Deja Moo
 
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Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
Quote:
Originally Posted by MuadDib
Let's not forget the Tennesee Senate race.
Honestly, I think that the House organization is a foregone conclusion for the Democrats. Same story with the gubernatorial elections where the Dems will spread their majority. The Senate is where it's at kids and it's going to be decided in Virginia, Tennesee, Missouri, Montana, and a possible black horse in Arizona.
Thank you. Added the senate races for these states. Any other additions?
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:46 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ubertuber
I just wanted to point out that the gubernatorial races are extremely interesting - it's looking like a true Dem landslide. Considering the track record of former Governors becoming presidents, this election could be fertile ground for talent cultivation.
I hadn't thought about that in "future president" terms, but that's a good point. What I thought particularly interesting about the gubernatorial electiosn was what that landslide says about voters. It would seem to indicate that America trusts Democrats to run their states, but not necessarily their nation (Note: that "necessarily" is key and may be determined later tonight).
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:48 PM   #19 (permalink)
Deja Moo
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ubertuber
I just wanted to point out that the gubernatorial races are extremely interesting - it's looking like a true Dem landslide. Considering the track record of former Governors becoming presidents, this election could be fertile ground for talent cultivation.
A very good point, and please know that I have a Dom chilling for that alone.
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:50 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elphaba
Thank you. Added the senate races for these states. Any other additions?
Nope, you're doing great. Thanks for the superb thread attention.

I would like to point out that some of those CNN points up there haven't actually been projected by CNN; they just have a lead on CNN. I'm specifically referring to Missouri, Montana, Tennesee, and Virginia.
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:53 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MuadDib
Nope, you're doing great. Thanks for the superb thread attention.

I would like to point out that some of those CNN points up there haven't actually been projected by CNN; they just have a lead on CNN. I'm specifically referring to Missouri, Montana, Tennesee, and Virginia.
Ah, thank you for the distinction. I'm getting my data online rather than the tube. My "yellow" posts are only meant to reflect a lead by a source.
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:53 PM   #22 (permalink)
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This just in:
Webb
1,141,052 50% 99% of precincts reporting votes by county voter survey results

Republican Allen
(Incumbent)
1,138,676 49%
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/senate/

Burns is losing to democratic party challenger in ND, 52 to 46,

With heavily urban areas in Tenn. and MO, not yet reported,
dems Ford and McCaskill also still have a chance for senate seats....
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Old 11-07-2006, 08:56 PM   #23 (permalink)
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At least there is one thing we can say right now...

...every vote DOES truly count
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:01 PM   #24 (permalink)
Deja Moo
 
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Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
Quote:
Originally Posted by host
This just in:
Webb
1,141,052 50% 99% of precincts reporting votes by county voter survey results

Republican Allen
(Incumbent)
1,138,676 49%
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/senate/

Burns is losing to democratic party challenger in ND, 52 to 46,

With heavily urban areas in Tenn. and MO, not yet reported,
dems Ford and McCaskill also still have a chance for senate seats....
I just heard that the Webb/Allen contest is so close that a recount will be necessary.

Quote:
Originally Posted by djtestudo
At least there is one thing we can say right now...

...every vote DOES truly count
Don't ya just love it!

Last edited by Elphaba; 11-07-2006 at 09:02 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:08 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elphaba
I just heard that the Webb/Allen contest is so close that a recount will be necessary.



Don't ya just love it!
Too true, too true. It is worth noting that in Virginia (Webb/Allen) if the margin of victory is less than 1% the law provides for an automatic recount if the loser requests it. However, it is very difficult to make up a full percent in a recount unless there was some serious stink.
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:25 PM   #26 (permalink)
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The Terminator won again. I'm feeling a little sick. At least the Republicans lost the House.
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:32 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Let him sit there and get the full blame for his governance. The House will likely be quite helpful in that effort.
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:35 PM   #28 (permalink)
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I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that McCaskill will eke out a very narrow, come from behind victory in the MO senate race. Talent is ahead by about 50,000, but he has no large pockets of potential votes to pickup in the precincts that have no reported. McCaskill will pick up many votes from Jefferson Cty, a St. Louis metro area that has not reported any votes, but is known to be very densely democratic. KC urban precincts, friendly to McCaskill, will also feed more votes to her....

...I don't hold much hope for Ford in Tenn.

Now, it is reported on CNN that AP has inverted the numbers of the VA sec'ty of state's numbers for Webb vs. Allen....with a small percent of Webb favored Alexandria precinct, still to report....so ???

I expect that the worst the dems will do in the senate is a 50 - 50 split, (Cheney will then vote with repubs as tie breaker) if only Webb in VA or McCaskill in MO wins, assuming Burns loses to Tester in MT...

Last edited by host; 11-07-2006 at 09:41 PM..
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:37 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Just a note, to head trouble off at the pass...


[MOD NOTE]
Save the smarmy one-liners and quips, keep your trolling and baiting under control, and we'll all survive this election period.

Keep up the shenanigans, and see how quickly the temp bans fly.

Consider this the first warning- anything after this will come with short vacations.

[/MOD NOTE]
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:41 PM   #30 (permalink)
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Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
Quote:
Originally Posted by analog
Just a note, to head trouble off at the pass...


[MOD NOTE]
Save the smarmy one-liners and quips, keep your trolling and baiting under control, and we'll all survive this election period.

Keep up the shenanigans, and see how quickly the temp bans fly.

Consider this the first warning- anything after this will come with short vacations.

[/MOD NOTE]
Excuse Me? Review this topic and every post and you will find that you are way off the mark. And I don't appreciate that you have used the same frickin warning that you gave u2's topic.

This topic is clean of BS of any kind. Explain your warning, Analog.
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:43 PM   #31 (permalink)
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-
McCaskill in MO now ahead by 1000 votes...that was quick...and Ford in TN is about to concede to repub, Corker...
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:45 PM   #32 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elphaba
Excuse Me? Review this topic and every post and you will find that you are way off the mark. And I don't appreciate that you have used the same frickin warning that you gave u2's topic.

This topic is clean of BS of any kind. Explain your warning, Analog.
He said he was just heading off trouble. At least I hope that it's just a pre-emptive warning. It doesn't take a psychic to see that this thread has massive trouble potential. I mean it may be the last thread with real conjecture about the results.
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Old 11-07-2006, 09:53 PM   #33 (permalink)
Deja Moo
 
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Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
Quote:
Originally Posted by MuadDib
He said he was just heading off trouble. At least I hope that it's just a pre-emptive warning. It doesn't take a psychic to see that this thread has massive trouble potential. I mean it may be the last thread with real conjecture about the results.
It is the very same warning that he gave to Ustwo's crap thread. This is not a crap thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by host
-
McCaskill in MO now ahead by 1000 votes...that was quick...and Ford in TN is about to concede to repub, Corker...
McCaskill is a surprise, and will also likely get a recount. Ford's loss due to racism implications is so Rovian. He may have lost simply on an honest comparison of positions, but all we get is a disgusting ad campaign.

Last edited by Elphaba; 11-07-2006 at 09:59 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 11-07-2006, 10:06 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elphaba
McCaskill is a surprise, and will also likely get a recount. Ford's loss due to racism implications is so Rovian. He may have lost simply on an honest comparison of positions, but all we get is a disgusting ad campaign.
McCaskill now ahead 813000 to 799000.....
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2...&yek=&state=mo

.if her lead holds, Tester beats Burns in MT, and Webb's lead survives a VA recount......if....!!!!

....we could have the beginning of checks and balances, again....but the house repubs are the mor to the right survivors, and the moderate repubs lost their seats in the house to conservative dems.....so sentiment may not change much, just the leadership.....but it's something.......

Tester is leading Burns in MT....94000 to 79000...but only 40 percent of precincts have reported.....McCaskill has her lead with 80 percent of precincts reported.....

If the Webb lead of 2700 votes is accurate....at this snapshot in time....the dems control both houses of the next congress..... by a hair....

Last edited by host; 11-07-2006 at 10:12 PM..
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Old 11-07-2006, 10:28 PM   #35 (permalink)
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Wow, Webb ahead by a vapor. I actually said a prayer for him, voted for him, being an evangelical and all. Go Webb! And the final count has him ahead.

Haven't you heard the Jebus pepul gots brains and want to votify two?
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Last edited by Poppinjay; 11-07-2006 at 10:33 PM..
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Old 11-07-2006, 10:34 PM   #36 (permalink)
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Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
The house is now taken by the Dem's. I would welcome a 50/50 split in the Senate to ensure greater scrutiny in the next SCOTUS appointee.

I can't be happier that we have regained a two party system of checks and balances. The reports of voter fraud/intimidation/suppression do concern me, but that is for another thread.

I'm off to look for more election updates.
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Old 11-07-2006, 10:37 PM   #37 (permalink)
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Looks like McCaskill is barely pulling ahead. I remember hearing stemcell research was arguably the most important issue in Missouri, yet it seems to be having a negligible impact.

Last edited by Ch'i; 11-07-2006 at 10:53 PM..
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Old 11-07-2006, 10:39 PM   #38 (permalink)
Deja Moo
 
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Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poppinjay
Wow, Webb ahead by a vapor. I actually said a prayer for him, voted for him, being an evangelical and all. Go Webb! And the final count has him ahead.

Haven't you heard the Jebus pepul gots brains and want to votify two?

Amen to you, Jebus pepul. I have heard that some exit polls indicate that the Evangelical Right has voted for Dems based upon their disgust with corruption issues. I take that with a grain of salt until all of the votes are in.

Kisses to Ch'i

Last edited by Elphaba; 11-07-2006 at 11:17 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 11-07-2006, 10:53 PM   #39 (permalink)
You had me at hello
 
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Location: DC/Coastal VA
Quote:
Amen to you, Jebus pepul. I have heard that some exit polls indicate that the Evangelical Right has voted for Dems based upon their disgust with corruption issues. I take that with a grain of salt until all of the votes are in.
I've entered every voting booth in the last few years begging the GOP to show me the way to true fiscal stewardship.

It ain't happening. Hey GOP, entice me and I'm yours.
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I think the Apocalypse is happening all around us. We go on eating desserts and watching TV. I know I do. I wish we were more capable of sustained passion and sustained resistance. We should be screaming and what we do is gossip. -Lydia Millet
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Old 11-07-2006, 11:03 PM   #40 (permalink)
All important elusive independent swing voter...
 
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Elph, awesome thread and good job with all the info and stuff. I guess those of us on the West coast are still counting right now and stuff.

I just got back home, let me look around and I'll reply soon. This really has been an exciting election.
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