dc_dux

An interesting dynamic of the election that has received little attention is the appointment of replacement Senators.

If Obama wins, Jesse Jackson Jr. wants that seat and Joe Biden may push for his seat to go to his son Beau, the state AG.

If McCain wins, Gov. Napolitano, a Democrat, has to replace him with a Republican by law...but she may want to run for the seat in 2010.

TheHill.com - Jesse Jackson Jr. hopes to replace Obama in Senate

Trickle down politics!

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Daniel_

Are these not elected posts?

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asaris

Yeah, but different states vary on what happens if they become vacant for some reason mid-term.

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Willravel

Bear in mind Jackson Jr. is not his father. He is popular in more groups than his father, mostly because he's not quite as outspoken. I don't know him as well as I know Jackson Sr. or Obama, but from what I know of him he seems perfectly capable.

dc_dux

Obama and McCain are both in the middle of their six year terms as Senators (both end in 2010)...so the governor of the the state of the one who becomes president will name a replacement to complete the term.

Biden is running simultaneously for VP and Senator of Del, so if he wins the governor will replace someone to fill the full term.
-----Added 26/10/2008 at 09 : 45 : 26-----
Jesse Jr has a good rep as an effective legislator with none of the bombastic personality of his father.

But just the name will be fodder for the right.

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"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
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The_Jazz

If Obama is elected, according to Illinois law, the governor chooses his replacement. Considering that Blagojevich and Jackson hate one another, Jr. isn't going to the Senate. The problem is that Blago and basically the rest of the Illinois Democrats hate each other and really can't stand to be around each other at all.

Right now, it's a pretty good guess that Blago is going to appoint himself since he has a 13% approval rating, and virtually no chance of getting re-elected or another elected gig - including dog catcher. It would give him the benefit of being an incumbent in 2010 AND being out of Illinois. The decision is his and his alone. The one thing that I think that might temper that is the fact that his girls go to school in Chicago (Latin, for those of you playing along at home), and he and his wife have been hesitant to move them.

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dc_dux

Jazz....if Blago appoints himself, then the Dem primary in 2010 should be interesting and will probably begin much sooner then you good folks in IL should be subjected to.

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Willravel

He'll be a lot more difficult to attack than his father, though. It will be nothing but guilty by association fallacies (like we've seen with Obama and Ayers).

The_Jazz

Are you kidding? There would be a stampede of potential candidates to register in January. There could actually be serious dangers to the general public with all the Democrats rushing to get signatures to clerks.

The thing is that this is Blago's decision only. Other people get "input", and he'll ignore them. He recently said that he wants to be re-elected governor, but his chances of that are virtually nil, even with a year to go in his 2nd term. This is his one chance to stay in any sort of office.

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"There ought to be limits to freedom." - George W. Bush
"We have met the enemy and he is us." - Pogo

dc_dux

The Jazz for Senator in 2010?

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The_Jazz

Pssssst. Hardly. It would take one bored teenager with mediocre google skillz an hour to get enough dirt on me to make me an embarrassment. See the body of my work on TFP for proof.

He may go the opposite direction and appoint Michael Madigan, who's the Speaker of the House and a major thorn in his side. He could try to appoint Daley, but the only chance that has of working is getting Daley drunk first and get him to agree to it in public where he can't take it back. Which won't happen since Daley wouldn't piss on an on-fire Blagojevich. He might also appoint Lisa Madigan (yes, his daughter), who's been a very successful AG and also a major threat.

If he's really much, much smarter than I have ever given him credit for, he'll appoint Emanuel. Or Jesse White. But neither of those is going to happen.

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"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - B. Franklin
"There ought to be limits to freedom." - George W. Bush
"We have met the enemy and he is us." - Pogo

SecretMethod70

If Blago is smart, he'll appoint himself. He has no shot at getting re-elected - for anything - and this would allow him to retire from politics as a United States Senator, and that would help him earn more money on the lecture circuit. Appointing himself would also be exactly the kind of sleazy move I'd expect from him.

If he's kinda smart, but mostly not, he'll try to appoint Lisa Madigan. He's delusional enough to think he has a chance at winning another gubernatorial race, and Lisa Madigan is someone who could likely slaughter him in a Democratic primary. As it stands, I'd love to see Lisa Madigan as senator, but I'd love it more to see her as governor. She's the one shot that the Democrats have of retaining the governorship, and I think she'd do an excellent job.

Rahm would be an interesting pick, but it looks like he has other prospects for his future.

Jesse Jackson Jr. would be an excellent choice. If you don't know about him, he is WAY more level-headed and intelligent than his father. I'd be proud to have him as my senator.

And now for my personal favorite ideas, despite being massive long-shots:

Senator Jan Schakowsky would give us a great senator from a great representative, and it would open up the ninth district seat for a relatively easy run by Dan Seals if he wants to try for it. He'd have the advantage of being hand-picked by the well-liked former congresswoman. Of course, that's the problem. Schakowsky is so secure in her House seat, she has little reason to risk giving that up for an uncertain re-election in 2010.

Finally, my favorite idea, and admittedly unlikely, Senator Dan Seals. Obama personally likes Dan and campaigned for him in 2006, before that race garnered national attention. Dick Durbin, our other senator who is extremely well-liked, has also taken a personal interest in getting Dan Seals into elected office. In this 2008 election, he gave a disproportionate amount of time and money to help Dan, and it took his daughter dying to prevent him from doing some last-minute campaigning with Dan. Finally, Dan is rather similar to the senator he would be replacing. While they have disagreements about some details when it comes to economic issues, they think similarly in the large majority of topics. It makes sense to replace Obama with someone who is both competent and who will represent Illinois in much the same manner that Obama has. It doesn't hurt that Dan has a proven ability to energize a grassroots movement, even if it wasn't successful, and would have a reasonable shot at winning re-election in 2010.

That's my professional, totally biased, and still depressed over losing opinion.

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dc_dux

There is small buzz about Tammy Duckworth, the female (asian) disabled Iraqi war vet.

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SecretMethod70

Oh yes, I forgot about Duckworth. She'd also be a decent choice.

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Le temps détruit tout

"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling

The_Jazz

Don't forget that if Blago choses himself and loses in the primary (which is painfully obvious), he'll have served just long enough to have earned the Senate pension and healthcare. That's no small thing. He'd also save whoever else he appointed from being run up the Republican flagpole as being directly linked to one of the most unpopular governors in state history, including the one who's currently in jail.

__________________
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - B. Franklin
"There ought to be limits to freedom." - George W. Bush
"We have met the enemy and he is us." - Pogo

Amaras

Nepotism.

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SecretMethod70

Indeed, choosing himself is honestly one of the best options, both for Blago and for the Democratic party's chances of retaining the seat. It's just not the best option for Illinois.

An important issue is whether the pick would be capable of winning downstate. This is where Jesse Jackson Jr. fails. Even if he were an excellent senator, his name would curse him in downstate IL when running for re-election.

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"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling