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Old 06-29-2004, 03:36 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Canada: Minority Liberal Government

So the dust settles, and we have a minority liberal government

Liberals - 135
Conservative - 99
Bloc - 54
NDP - 19

This gives a Liberal / NDP alliance - 154 votes

What do you, brave TFP members, believe to be the ramafications of this vote? Will "The House" continue normal operations, status quo? Will the new govenment be able to post a budget? Or are we looking at a lame duck?
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Old 06-29-2004, 04:49 AM   #2 (permalink)
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I think we will see another election within the year. Jack Layton and Paul Martin do not like each other at all and I can't see them compromising on much.
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Old 06-29-2004, 04:55 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Minority Liberal Government

Quote:
Originally posted by losthellhound
So the dust settles, and we have a minority liberal government

Liberals - 135
Conservative - 99
Bloc - 54
NDP - 19

This gives a Liberal / NDP alliance - 154 votes

What do you, brave TFP members, believe to be the ramafications of this vote? Will "The House" continue normal operations, status quo? Will the new govenment be able to post a budget? Or are we looking at a lame duck?
I believe there is an independant also elected, who if he sides with the Libs and NDP gives them 155, a tiny majority.

At any rate, I don't think you'll see any firm alliances - the Libs will work with the NDP and Conservatives (less so the Bloc I think) to get through the next 18-24 months at which point we'll have another election.
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Old 06-29-2004, 04:57 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by Daval
I think we will see another election within the year. Jack Layton and Paul Martin do not like each other at all and I can't see them compromising on much.
Don't think it will be so soon. First, the parties don't have the cash to do another campaign so soon. Second, if no major issues come up, people will just vote the same way in all likelyhood resolving nothing.

The Libs will wait until they look a bit stronger in the polls - especially Quebec - and then we'll be back voting. 1.5 year is my guess, fall 2005.
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Old 06-29-2004, 04:58 AM   #5 (permalink)
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It's too bad the Green Party didnt win any seats. I was hoping they would get 1 or 2 at least so they would be allowed to participate in the debates and not be totally and utterly ignored by the media.
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Old 06-29-2004, 05:05 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Yeah, sorry.. add one independant (Was it John Nunziata (spelling I know) this year again?)

I hate to think that there will be another election later this year.. The members of Parliament should be more interested in keeping a viable running government then concentrating on petty sqabbles.
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Old 06-29-2004, 05:19 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Oh Canada. My home and native land.
Where we're afraid to debate gay marriage because it might piss off .7% of the population but we'll gladly hand over 250 million to Quebec to keep traitors from trying to ruin our country. A country that is ok with spending 2 billion on a gun registry that has no teeth and protects no one but won't spend a freakin dime on keeping illegal guns, booze and tobacco from crossing the border because it might piss off the natives making a fortune at it. A country that passes a law that makes it illegal for anyone to say anything that might offend Svend Robinson (so much for free speech). A country so afraid of the possibility of sending our soldiers to war that even the mention of military spending causes people to label the right Nazis and knuckle draggers. A country that rewards Paul Martin with 134 seats in the house of commons even though he held the purse strings that kept the provinces from providing proper funding to health care and other services.
and finally a country that last night, let every liberal candidate from BC to Newfoundland know that Canada is all right with broken promises, theft of public funds outright lies and tax and spend policies. Keep it up Paul we don't mind. Ruin our fine country. Run this mother into the ground. Don't forget to mail my GST rebate cheque though.
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Old 06-29-2004, 07:35 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by losthellhound
Yeah, sorry.. add one independant (Was it John Nunziata (spelling I know) this year again?)

I hate to think that there will be another election later this year.. The members of Parliament should be more interested in keeping a viable running government then concentrating on petty sqabbles.
No some dude in BC.

Re the Greens - at least they now get a whack of cash ($1.75 I think) for each vote since they received more than 2.5% of the popular vote. I think they also get an office in Ottawa. So no seat, but more of a voice.
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Old 06-29-2004, 07:41 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by highthief
No some dude in BC.

Chuck Cadman from Surrey North. The guy with a pony tail and jeans.
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Old 06-29-2004, 10:51 AM   #10 (permalink)
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154 isn't quite enough to run the government.

The Speaker of the House has to be an MP. The Speaker doesn't vote unless there is a tie, at which point he breaks the tie.

If the Speaker is selected from the Liberals or NDP, they won't have a majority.

Will they select a Speaker from the Conservatives or Bloc? If so, the Speaker could resign at any time and return any NDP-Liberal coalition to a "not-majority" situation.
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Old 06-29-2004, 10:58 AM   #11 (permalink)
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it's not so much what he wears, but what he says.

unfortunatly i haven't heard him speak.

I am dissapointed on how much power the bloc now has. Dissapointed that the NDP have so few seats. Dissapointed that we are still listening to liberal bullshit. I hope that things get done in the coming years and that there will be some reforms to our welfare system and our health care administration. I hope with a minority gov't that laws get through because they are just and fair, not just a fair compromise between parties. I hope the conservatives stabilize their platform so I know how the hell they want to run the country when they get elected. And finally I hope there will be no more huge fuck ups until the next election. I hate reading that billions of taxpayers money has been wasted because of political debauchery, red tape, mismanagement, spite, clerical error, and outright theft.

Canada make me proud.
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Old 06-29-2004, 11:43 AM   #12 (permalink)
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I think, as stated in another thread, Paul Martin is going to have to come clean and make good on a lot of promises very fast. If not, that election which is bound to come in 18 months or less will ruin him and the Liberals. He was given a minority vote with a very short string. We'll see if his ego realizes this.

Funny though, I feel like I am in a surreal world today since I see Paul Martin on tv right now speaking of how there is no place in Canadian politics and no place in any campaign to run negative attack ads. Was I dreaming that I saw a variety of attack ads directed at the Conservatives by the Liberals? Wow, he hasn't even been sworn in yet and he is lying already. Can't wait to see all those billions in promises played out from such a man of honesty and integrity. Or maybe he'll just tell the average Canadian to look the other direction like he did when he shut down the adscam inquiry.

And from a different point of view, Stephen Harper should be grateful the Liberals have a minority. Afterall the pressure is on the Liberals to come through. If the Conservatives won a minority the Liberals would do everything in their power to destroy them to regain power. Now it is the Liberals who are digging their own grave, providing they follow the Liberal party line status quo corruption which they will because they have been repeatedly rewarded for it.
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Old 06-29-2004, 11:49 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
And from a different point of view, Stephen Harper should be grateful the Liberals have a minority. Afterall the pressure is on the Liberals to come through. If the Conservatives won a minority the Liberals would do everything in their power to destroy them to regain power. Now it is the Liberals who are digging their own grave, providing they follow the Liberal party line status quo corruption which they will because they have been repeatedly rewarded for it.
Is this like not calling the hand and trumping the partners that do?
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Old 06-29-2004, 12:19 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Both the PCs and the Liberals have a long standing tradition of corruption...

I tend to believe Paul Martin when he says things are not going to be business as usual. That he going to clean things up and make for a more democratic parliament...


All I want is proportional representation... if nothing else comes of this Electorate so be it... but this is important.
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Old 06-29-2004, 01:02 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by Charlatan


I tend to believe Paul Martin when he says things are not going to be business as usual. That he going to clean things up and make for a more democratic parliament...

I really, really hope that this is the case. I hope he isn't saying that because he has or knew he was heading for a minority government and has no choice as opposed to a majority where accountability is as extinct as the dinosaurs.

Until things change as he says they will, I will continue to believe nothing he says.
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Old 06-29-2004, 08:08 PM   #16 (permalink)
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I would also like proportional representation... the NDP would have fared better in a lot of their ridings
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Old 06-30-2004, 06:57 AM   #17 (permalink)
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I was just looking at the numbers again...

135 Liberal plus 19 NDP = 154

99 Conservative + 54 Bloc + 1 indendent = 154

Once the Liberals install a speaker that makes it 153 to 154


This Parliament isn't going to last long at all.

More importantly, this is bad news for a new deal with the Cities, something that I was really hoping for... The Bloc and the Conservatives do not support the Liberal's approach to a new deal with the cities... they just want to increase transfers to the provinces and leave it up to them to keep their cities in the black.

We already know this doesn't work, that's why there was a need for a new deal...

Bloody hell, Toronto and Vancouver are about to get shafted again.
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Old 06-30-2004, 07:33 AM   #18 (permalink)
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I really don't see the Bloc and Conservatives allying much unless in a couple of years if things look dark for the Liberals they call a vote of non-confidence.
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Old 06-30-2004, 07:38 AM   #19 (permalink)
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When it comes to shrinking the Federal government's powers and increasing Provincial powers the Bloc and Conservatives have a lot in common.

With reference to the cities specifically, I am very concerned about what this all means...

Then of course there is the whole non-confidence issue... it could be called as soon as the house sits... the interesting thing about our Parliament is that the house need only sit once every year.
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Old 06-30-2004, 07:41 AM   #20 (permalink)
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There won't be a non-confidence vote - I can guarantee that. The party's have little campaign money left and the party that puts the nation through another election so soon will take a beating at the polls. People just won't stand for it so soon.

18-24 months is my guess.
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