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Old 12-16-2003, 07:26 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Computers in 2005/2006

I was thinking the other day about how hardware technology is moving so fast ahead that it's clearly able to handle all the software thrown at it. Remember the days of the Pentium 166mhz, 233mhz, and so on...? Whenever the clock speed went up 200mhz you would buy a new PC. But now, the hardware has a significant lead on the software and the speeds and storage that computers will reach in 2005/2006 blow my mind. Right now a decent computer that'll run about $999 includes a P4 2.6 ghz, 512 megs of ram, 64 meg vid. card, and around a 100 gig HD. I remember paying $3,000 for a P3 600 mhz 128 meg, 8 mb vid card a couple years back... scary though, i'll never spend more than $1,200 on a computer. I'm just curious as to what you guys think a $999 PC's specs will be in the years 2005 thru 2006 will be.

My guess is this...
CPU: Pentium 5 (5.2 ghz) or comparable AMD CPU
Mem: 2 Gigs RD/DDR?
Vid: 512 MB
HD: 500 Gigs/1 Terabyte

... i dunno, maybe i'm being too optimistic, but i don't think it's too far off.
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Old 12-16-2003, 07:30 PM   #2 (permalink)
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follow Moore's Law and you'll find that ou're not too far off the mark...
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Old 12-16-2003, 08:19 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by Cynthetiq
follow Moore's Law and you'll find that ou're not too far off the mark...
Moore's law only works on super computers, mainframes, and other computers not intended for personal use.

I'd say in 2005, a $999 computer will include a 3.2 GHz P4 with HT, 120-150 GB HDD, 512 MB of PC3200-PC4200 RAM, with possibly a GeForce FX 5900 Ultra. DVD burners definitely, floppy drives, on-board sound and LAN. I imagine the video will be on-board as well.

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Old 12-16-2003, 08:38 PM   #4 (permalink)
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512MB vid cards? I'm guessing 1024, but what I'm really into believing is that in time we won't need hardware to decode audio signals and to translate video images, it'll all be software (using hardware of course but just a mobo).
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Old 12-16-2003, 09:45 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Just a rough guess..

Plot the curve from the newest clock speeds of every 6 months starting in 96..

Where does that curve say that 2005 will land?



-SF
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Old 12-18-2003, 08:31 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I think Las is right, especially talking about a $999 computer, those are pretty mid-price range now as far as computers go, and since 3.2 EE HT is the cock of the walk at the moment, aka the best Intel you can get, it should be finding its way into mid-range systems in about a little over 16 months. Same thing goes for the 5900, that'll be mid-to-low-range by the time 2005 rolls around.
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Old 12-21-2003, 01:43 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lasereth
DVD burners definitely, floppy drives, on-board sound and LAN.
floppy drives still in 2006. i wonder when they will die out
 
Old 12-21-2003, 02:42 AM   #8 (permalink)
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2005/2006 i say 4 ghz cpu, 1gb of ram... and 160/250gb hdd's being the norm.
for what would be happening with graphics cards.. i dont know... that's an industry that seems to be changing pretty rapidly, and im not really sure what next version of directx/opengl is gonna be bringing. maybe something that's equivalent to running toy story at 1024x768 in real time
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Old 12-21-2003, 06:43 AM   #9 (permalink)
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i think floppy will die out when USB flash drives become cheaper. until then, floppy is still the easiest medium for transporting word files IMO
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Old 12-21-2003, 07:16 AM   #10 (permalink)
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I think floppies won't last too much longer. With the prevelence of USB cards/drives, cd burners (and cheapness of blank CDs), and networks.. the need for the floppy seems little.
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Old 12-22-2003, 09:31 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by Cynthetiq
follow Moore's Law and you'll find that ou're not too far off the mark...
It's getting harder and harder for computer engineers to keep up with Moore's Law. But people have predicted the end for many years, so I won't repeat their mistakes. It's also kind of a gunk rule of thumb, since there are different kinds of computers (and nowadays people call clusters supercomputers, because the line is just that fine.. a nice gray area).

However, I find Lasereth's prediction incredibly pessimistic. I'd better get more of a computer than that for $999 in 2005.

I'd rather see faster CPU's than CPU's with higher clock frequencies. In 2005 I bet we will see mainstream CPU's produced with an 50 nanometer material process. That's not too optimistic, I think.
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Old 12-23-2003, 12:59 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by mciprepaid
floppy drives still in 2006. i wonder when they will die out
Oddly, never. There a fixture of the computer landscape that only the zip drive at one point came close to replacing. Their universal, less wastefull than cdr's and able to cross tech gaps between the first, second, and third world countries. Every computer in the world (think globally, not the US) has a floppy drive. Some of this world is still lags behind by 5-6 years if your lucky, and many poorer countries have few computers with newer tech specs.
But there will always be the 3.5 floppy
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Old 12-23-2003, 09:00 AM   #13 (permalink)
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I don't think floppies will be going out anytime soon. I dunno if they do it yet, but are USB floppies able to boot a comp yet? I still have to use a floppy on some of the distros of linux... Goddamn you Gibraltor...
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Old 12-23-2003, 11:39 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by arch13
Oddly, never. There a fixture of the computer landscape that only the zip drive at one point came close to replacing. Their universal, less wastefull than cdr's and able to cross tech gaps between the first, second, and third world countries. Every computer in the world (think globally, not the US) has a floppy drive. Some of this world is still lags behind by 5-6 years if your lucky, and many poorer countries have few computers with newer tech specs.
But there will always be the 3.5 floppy
Floppies are already on the outs. I work for a reseller and we ship out PC's to businesses all the time that no longer have a floppy drive. Its part of slimming down computers. As PC cases get smaller and smaller, I think this trend will continue. Maybe not in the consumer market, but I see this happening for business PC's everyday.

And yes you can boot from a USB drive. Personally I wish they would keep floppies. Its can be a pain in the ass if you are trying to diagnose some hardware problems and a PC doesn't have a floppy drive.
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Old 12-23-2003, 12:21 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by Conclamo Ludus
Floppies are already on the outs. I work for a reseller and we ship out PC's to businesses all the time that no longer have a floppy drive. Its part of slimming down computers. As PC cases get smaller and smaller, I think this trend will continue. Maybe not in the consumer market, but I see this happening for business PC's everyday.

And yes you can boot from a USB drive. Personally I wish they would keep floppies. Its can be a pain in the ass if you are trying to diagnose some hardware problems and a PC doesn't have a floppy drive.
not to mention getting stupid USB drivers to work properly in DOS
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