It's the economy, stupid: Obama vs. Romney has already begun

Romney will continue to push the "Obama's policies are a failure" line no matter how much the economy improves. GOP talking heads will call it the "Bush Recovery".

 

I just can't wrap my head around the notion that there is any faith on the part of Romney for his/the GOP policy. Surely if he's smart enough to quickly get out from under a failed investment, he's smart enough not to hang on to a failed economic ideal in the wake of its destruction. Then again, it's only a failure if you're anywhere below the top waiting to be blessed from above.

I can only guess that his advisors have sussed out the obvious. That the majority of conservative voters do not understand supply side economics and are willing to accept what they've been told - that the last ten years of increasing unemployment and loss of income and benefits are somehow the result of liberal and "socialist" policies. Or maybe a punishment from God for electing an African American democrat with a Muslim sounding middle name. A dry economic policy is only an effective campaign tool if it's served up with lots and lots of mashed potatoes and gravy. Serving the trickle down theory ("The Reagan Special") with a super-sized helping of socially conservative side dishes, may go down quite easily. For dessert - a promise to lower taxes, a hard-line on crime, increased defense spending.

Providing he can pull it off. I suspect he will focus too heavily on his economic plan and lose what remaining social conservatives he may still have in his corner. For them, it's not the economy stupid. It's still abortion, same sex marriage, gun regulation and prayer in schools. Some thinking never progresses beyond its own narrow viewpoint. I suppose it's why we call them conservative.

Fiscal conservatives are in the bag for Romney, I think - even those who are well aware of its inability to create job growth but don't much care. They can see the writing on the wall if Obama's elected to a second term - reintroduction of the Buffet Rule bill, an increase in taxes on capital gains, investments in job training and other federally funded "socialist" programs. Despite the fact that Obama has been further in their corner the last 3 years than out of it.

Independents are always a wildcard but without the social conservative vote coming out to support him in full force, they aren't likely to be a deciding factor.

Who he chooses for a running mate, could make a difference.

For the time being, he has no choice but to support the GOP's "Reaganomics on steroids" policy and it will be his job to make it appear more Reagan-like until he can come up with a policy of his own. He can't afford to let Ryan and his bandwagon swing in the wind just yet.

But as I said, I don't believe he has faith in it himself and my guess is he will eventually moderate a bit. He may have to in order to attract Republican voters who do think it's the economy stupid.

 

Also, politics is not business. Business has a hard metric by which to measure reality and hanging onto failed ideas after they've become obviously problematic is punished severely by that metric. Politics often goes the other way, where hanging onto shitty ideas long past their time makes you 'principled'.

 

"Stay the Course"

Good point.

 

If we are basing things on 'the economy', I can remember back in 2008 how everyone was worried that their homes were going to be worth far less than what they paid, that there were no buyers. The stock market had gone down to 6,500...and could have easily gone down lower than that.

So, the overall economy has improved and stabilized. It's a few people that need to be helped at finding work, it needs to be easier to start a company, and there are a lot of government finances and spending that needs correcting. But, Obama seems to have a good handle on how to do this in a way that won't only screw the poor and middle class over.

 

If unemployment keeps creeping down to below 8 percent in the next six months and gas prices stabilize or decline, it gets harder and harder for Romney and the Republicans to make a case for the return to supply side.

Obama will be hitting Republicans hard on their radical budget proposal that is directed right at the pocketbook of the middle class and working poor while they keep pushing for more tax cuts for the top one percent.

And despite Ace's denial, women's reproductive rights, funding of social safety net programs and protecting women's pay rights are economic issues for many women that Romney will not be able to overcome given the need to pander to the base on these issues.

If the economy flattens or stalls, all bets are off.

 

When Reagan took office gas prices were at an average inflation adjusted high of $3.37, during his term the price dropped to below $2.00. My closest station is charging $3.85 - I would love to see Reaganomics Revisited.

 

We werent competing with the growing demand from China and India in the 80s, but we (Reagan) were selling weapons to both Iran and Iraq to keep the oil flowing.

Given those circumstances, an average of 50 cents higher is hardly out of line.

And has nothing to do with the failed policy of Reaganomics.

 

Given the effect oil prices have on economies at every level, this seems appropriate:

New EIA Data : Casaubon's Book

And regardless of whether you think we're anywhere near 'peak oil' or not, it seems clear to me that the global thirst for this crude refreshment is outpacing the supply and causing the huge spikes in prices. Trickle-down isn't going to solve this problem.

It would seem the candidate to favor on this point is the one who plans to do the most to prevent our economy from being held hostage to fluctuating oil prices, even if that plan is presented as a solution to primarily environmental concerns. I.e. 'green' energy isn't only about tree hugging hippies and global warming, but has a very practical, (nominally) conservative benefit in unshackling the economy from the lead anchor of inflating energy prices.

 

I listened today as Mitt claimed Obama a failure if he's not adding 500K jobs a month, whoa! That's quite a goal post move. He also stated if unemployment was over 4% then that too makes Obama a failure. I need to Google when the last time the US added 500K jobs a month and had an unemployment rate less then 4%.

 

Well to be honest I think both parties routinely base their platforms and statements on the belief the average US voter is in fact an idiot. I wish they were wrong but fear they're not. I know so many people who have no idea who represents them in congress. Even more who couldn't tell you who is current Sec. Of State or for that fact who is the current VP. Pretty saddening as a US citizen.

 

Well to be fair that pretty much how Obama ended up there. Ill informed pissed off voters sick of the Bush Jr years. Obama never had to run against McCain/Palin, just against what Bush/Cheney did to the country.

 

I also don't think Obama needed to do anything other then simply point at Bush Jr., shrug his shoulders and say "Huh, huh... look at this guy. You want more of this?" He didn't need to make shit up really. He did make many promises that he's not fulfilled. Did he really intend to then obtain new info as POTUS that changed his mind? Maybe... in some cases. But my guess is he never thought he'd be able to do all he promised. Then there's stuff he's clearly back tracked on. He's currently pissing me off with his handling of the medical marijuana situation. He's claimed "it's a law I can't simply tell the justice department not to enforce a law." That's, as many on the left have pointed out, complete and utter horseshit. He could sign an executive order and put an end to the raids immediately if he wanted. His handling of the gay rights issue has not thrilled me either. He clearly courted their votes in '08 and made commitments to them then dragged his feet on nearly every LGBT issue after being elected. In short he's a politician and like all politicians he's full of BS at times. Knowing what I know now would I still have voted for the man? Damn right. Because the GOP option was just so fucking insane, from the policies they favored to the people they ran. Palin an old mans heartbeat away from the oval office? Fuck that. The thought alone would give me nightmares. Plus McCain seemingly slowly turned into a crazy old man as the election process unfolded. It's like he couldn't handle the pressure of running for office, which let's face it must be like running a year long marathon. But if he couldn't handle that I have serious doubts he could handle the pressure of being POTUS. So no, I would and will still vote Obama.


And no I don't think there's an equal amount of BS coming from both sides. But I've turned more liberal in the last 15-20 years so my views may be slanted. But if you check sites like factcheck.org you'll find plenty of BS coming from both sides of the aisle. You'd have to actually go add them up I guess to determine if one side or the other is actually more blatantly lying.