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It's the economy, stupid: Obama vs. Romney has already begun

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by Baraka_Guru, Apr 19, 2012.

  1. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    I have not vetted this number and I have not found a good source but the impact of small business on the economy and employment can not be denied, and I do not doubt there has been a material decline in business start-ups. I think this is a better indicator of outlook.

    PolitiFact Rhode Island | Mitt Romney says annual new business startups have dropped by 100,000 since Barack Obama became president
     
  2. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Ryan and the Republicans are making the tough choices?

    It is not a tough choice to screw those who are among the least represented and least influential and certainly are not their big campaign contributors. Or is that we call "compassionate conservatism"?

    A tough choice would be to tell their corporate CEO contributions, their big oil contributors, their Wall Street contributors, etc. that they have to share the sacrifice.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2012
  3. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    You don't know these things at best you speculate. Real work, real production, leads to increased disposable income. Your premise is simply wrong. Regarding tax cuts, we have been through this many times and today the biggest issue affecting job creation is Obamacare if we address this, we see an immediate spike in job creation.
    --- merged: May 10, 2012 at 12:35 PM ---
    As opposed to Obama, who won't present a serious budget, yes.
    As opposed the leadership in the Senate, who wont' present and pass a serious budget, yes.

    Come back when there is a serious liberal alternative.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 17, 2012
  4. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    I could say the same about your supply side/trickle down premise which has failed on multiple occasions and acknowledged as having failed by its own architects from the Reagan administration and would fail again at a huge cost to the debt.

    I shared the House Democrat budget with you weeks ago and Boehner still has not given clearance for it to be brought up for a vote. Budget votes always start in the House, not the Senate.

    Come back when you can support any of your supply side rhetoric with data.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2012
    • Like Like x 1
  5. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Within the context of the American economy, to disagree is a bit naive to say the least. It may have some traction if we were talking about a place like Evans Mills, New York, but we aren't.

    This is generally true, but you seem to think that in an economy such as the American economy that it's possible to allocate resources to one group at the expense of another with no negative consequences. This isn't the case.

    There is no starving goose.

    To speak in real terms (I don't care if you like it), America has a set of core strengths. These include small business, labour, laws, government, education, and resources. To hamstring one for the benefit of another would have dire consequences. To hamstring more than one for the benefit of another would spell certain doom.

    If you can't understand this, I don't know what else to tell you other than highly recommending you read a book such as Naked Economics: Understanding the Dismal Science.

    Rather than speak in vague terms, why not be more specific? What are these scare resources you're talking about? What are these tough choices you're talking about? What is small business missing? What should government do for small business? What are the current challenges small business is facing?

    Try to speak in real terms instead of fabulation.

    If you cannot speak about small business, its role in the wider economy, its strengths and weaknesses, and how these strengths and weaknesses relate to the other aspects of the economy and society, then I'm not interested in hearing what you have to say. It would be a waste of time. I meant this thread to be a place to discuss economic issues, not abstract them.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2012
  6. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    There are negative consequences when limited resources have to be allocated - this is true by definition. I have no idea what the meaning of your comment is. At best it appears to me that you may be of the belief that resources are unlimited and we have the luxury of doing all things for all purposes. MY point has clearly been that sacrifices are needed and that it is best to allocate limited resources in a manner that provides the best net good.

    Again, it appears as if you do not understand the metaphor.

    We do not need to "hamstring" small business for the benefit of another. I gave an example, Obamacare, that hurts the business climate and fails to solve the problems it is supposed to address. We can fix the healthcare issue in a manner that works for small business - and therefore works for the good of workers, the good of government, the good of people in need of assistance, etc. For some reason you will not acknowledge better possible approaches or solutions. Canada has recovered on a much stronger footing and faster than the US. Canada's approach included business friendly policy, spending discipline, maximization of core strengths, in a manner where they do good for citizens and the environment. I am beginning to feel as if you want the US to fail.
     
  7. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    But since I always read TFA.
    This is a half-truth, by their determination...
    And like my favorite scientist likes to say, "Everything's Relative"
    It's all in the perspective.
     
  8. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    In the context of both short term economic growth and long term debt reduction, I understand your point to be that allocating resouces towards retaining or making permanent the Bush tax cut on the top 1/2 of one percent would provides the best net good, despite the fact that it hasnt contributed to economic growth, particularly among small businesses.

    And the sacrifices should be the "tough choices" that Ryan made, including significant cuts to health and welfare programs for the middle class and working poor.

    So where is the sacrifice among the wealthiest?

    It brings to mind a question that was posed to the Republican candidates at one of the debates:
    “I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1... spending cuts to tax increases…. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal? Can you raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes, you’d walk away on the 10-to-1 deal?”

    What reasonable person would walk away from a 10:1 deal in your favor?

    Serious discussion of these issues require a serious willingness to have shared sacrifice....something that is just not acceptable to those on the right.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2012
    • Like Like x 1
  9. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    I generally agree that Presidents get too much blame and too much credit for the economy during their terms. However, in Obama term, he has clearly been anti-business in his words and actions. I have not read any economist hold the view that the recovery form our last recession has been weak and slower than in past recoveries.
    --- merged: May 10, 2012 at 5:56 PM ---
    Here is the problem - either end the Bush tax cuts or make them permanent. Uncertainty is the problem. Give people the rules and they adapt. A business person doing a business plan makes projections - decisions are made based on those projections. At certain levels of uncertainty, people simply wait!

    This is not complicated.

    All these things need a viable, strong growing economy.

    Again, this is not complicated.

    Wealthy people don't sacrifice. If they already have wealth they have choices, and will act to preserve their wealth. If you want to "confiscate", isn't that a different discussion? Short-sightedness is hurting those trying to create wealth, those who want to become wealthy - and as they do that they benefit others. Remember a new business that can earn a 10% profit margin, has 90% of every dollar going to another purpose.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 17, 2012
  10. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Again with the vagueness. What resources? What sacrifices? What allocation? What provision of net good?

    Your ideas make me nervous. They start out bombastic and then are "supported" by generalizations.

    No, I understand it. It's a failed metaphor.

    I've suggested a single-payer system or some other related system that virtually every other developed nation has built. This, however, seems beside the point. Is this all you have? "Obamacare"? You've said little else (or maybe nothing else). Is that it? Is that what Romney should be focusing on to improve the economy? The focus of Romney's economic platform should be either a) repeal "Obamacare," or b) revise or replace "Obamacare" with a single-payer system or something similar?

    Are you suggesting that "Obamacare" is the single biggest challenge that small business faces? That's it? Well, they've been running under the program for a while now, and I don't think it necessarily has been that big an issue. What impact do you think it has had? How does it hurt the business climate? Does fixing it require repealing it, or does it simply require revision?

    "Obamacare" hasn't solved problems? Are you sure about that? Do you have evidence of this?

    Also, I thought you said something about allocating resources. Tell us about that.

    First, I'm not entirely sure that Canada is that much more business friendly than the U.S., if at all. The regulation on all levels of government here would probably drive you insane.

    Second, our spending included a stimulus during the recession, and now it seems to be going towards an ostensibly sensible deficit reduction (kind of like what Obama wants to do but on a much smaller and shorter scale). This may or may not be a good thing (the recently proposed budget is currently being debated). It depends on the global economy. Canada has legislation regarding balanced budgets (a liberal initiative, as liberals on both sides of the border seem to have better fiscal discipline).

    Third, the maximization of our core strengths is something we've done for a long time. It includes ensuring strong support for infrastructure, resource management, social programs/security/welfare, education, and healthcare. This is what makes us strong. This is exactly why I say a nation is more like a flock of geese that lay golden eggs. We tend our flock, and America should too.

    Fourth: Have you seen the Tar Sands?! It's an environmental disaster in slow motion! The current budget proposal is a "Trojan horse" that includes provisions for loosening already degraded environmental regulations. Canada is quickly ruining its reputation as responsible stewards of the environment under the Conservatives!

    Fifth: What gives you the impression I want the U.S. to fail? Where the fuck did that come from? If anything, I would love the U.S. to borrow strategies from the successes experienced in Canada, Germany, and places like Norway. You know, places that tend their flock of geese that lay golden eggs. (I'll let go of this tired metaphor if you do.)
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2012
  11. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Ace, you're putting up articles in big bold print supporting the rhetoric of your side.
    Then adding another from a "fact" finding site in support of it...but when someone notes what was said by the bold print is bullshit.
    You ignore the highlighted points from the rebuttal.

    Then you state that you haven't read any economist holding the recovery has been weaker & slower than others.
    First, there is a recovery, period...that's good. The one in charge, gets credit/blame for good, bad or ugly.
    You can't emphasize crediting one...then blame the other...then say that it really doesn't matter...it invalidates your previous arguments.
    You're trying to have your cake and eat it too.

    Second, my statement about it being a perspective is right on the money.
    I agree, credit/blame is likely irrelevant...but when looking at a recovery or recession and doing a comparison,
    then you need to understand why, and bring in everything from all aspects...
    in real life, you cannot end at on point, start on another...it's not a race...it's continuous...it blurs together.
    So you need to interpret the trends overall.

    Do I believe that GW Bush did policies that triggered the down-turn? Not really, he didn't do anything...
    he was just continuing the policy most everyone had for awhile, that bubble had many fathers. He was mostly focused on Iraq and Terrorists.

    But nor do I believe that Obama is "anti-business" (hyperbole if I ever heard it)
    Far from it, he has protected Wall Street and much of industry from the more gruelling punishments that could have happened.
    And he has supported the status-quo supporting business to continue and build the momentum of the economy.
    Much to the chagrin & annoyance of many liberals who wanted more blood-shed.

    If you claim to be fair-minded...give credit, where credit is due.
    I don't agree with all of Obama's decisions or policies...but you shouldn't look at everything in negative context.

    Right now, like my very politically conservative wife, you are towing the line. (at least if I'm reading your previous posts right)
    Arguing for the sake of it and seeing your opponent in Bile-colored glasses.
    It's like you're a Yankees fan and you are talking about the Red Sox.

    If you're the intellectual from the way you're writing, then call it straight, use no bias. Argue without exaggeration.
     
  12. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    "Anti-business" is, as always, typical rhetoric. According to those who make such charges, anyone who isn't a free-marketer is "anti-business." American politics is rife with such petty binary thinking. (Though it's certainly not limited to America.)

    Obama's record with small business is mixed at worst. Well, what do you expect during a severe recession and a long recovery?

    But anti-business? Hardly

    Obama has done a few things, including:
    • Created an Advanced Manufacturing Fund to invest in peer-reviewed manufacturing processes
    • Increased access to capital for minority-owned businesses
    • Implemented "Women Owned Business" contracting program
    • Expanded loan programs for small businesses
    • Raised the small business investment expensing limit to $250,000 through the end of 2009
    • In the process of creating a fund for international small and medium enterprises (SME)
    There are more, of course.

    The thing to note, however, is that this is hardly the first time Obama has been considered anti-business: Why Obama is a pro-business president - FT.com
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2012
  13. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    I am going to be brief and give an example for emphasis to illustrate a key point.

    Assume I am a real-estate developer, put me in the top 1% in terms of wealth and income. I specialize in mixed use urban development, I locate land either vacant, abandon, or underdeveloped, I buy it, and I create a modern mixed use property where people can work, eat, play and sleep. There is commercial retail, office space, housing, green areas, recreational facilities, perhaps even some space for light industrial use.

    I do this project after project, in various cities. it is a good business, and before income and capital gains taxes I net a 20% profit on each project.

    It is clear that after I am done and during, many people have jobs, there is affordable housing, there is a green foot print (with mixed use, less commuting and a throw back to real neighborhoods and real community), recreation, shopping. It is a win for me, a win for workers, shoppers, people in need of housing, local government, etc., etc.,etc.

    Now an anti-business administration comes in and makes the process more difficult. In addition they talk about "fairness". remember my 20% profit before taxes, let's say now they want 50% of my profits - my margin is now 10%. Now I have a choice, I can either do another project, or I can invest in tax free municipal bonds and in both cases I earn (for simplicity purposes) after tax 10%.

    I am making that sacrifice you want. But I am also not doing what I do best. I am not creating jobs, I am not creating modern living environments, I am not putting creative minds together to solve problems.

    One day, you folks will get it, I know you will.
     
  14. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    You are not creating a realistic scenario that reflects the policies of the current administration. You are not putting facts together; you are relying on ideological exaggerations. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you are not fooling anyone here and now with these tired tricks.

    One day you will get it. I know you will.
     
  15. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Again, you exaggerate, are inconsistent and ambiguous.

    Your business makes 20% margin, employs many...

    In an extreme & almost dictatorial government,
    I may see a 50% drop in my profit due to instant taxes and/or regulation.
    (perhaps Venezuela, where the leader is truly socialist/communist)

    But we are not talking about that.

    Within the US, which I assume that we are discussing here. (correct me if I'm wrong)
    Then it is very unlikely you would ever see this.
    When even the most "liberal", "anti-business" administration would be in charge.
    (and we're not even talking about the checks on their power/authority)

    MAYBE at an extreme, would you see an decrease of margin down to 19%
    But even this is doubtful.
    You see...I owned a business too...for some years. (So I get it)

    You know as well as I do, most regulation is more of an annoyance,
    than any fiscal impact...it slows you down...a bit.
    Once you've learned the rules, its paperwork, the worst is a fee
    and trying to remember to do it.

    Taxes perhaps MAY impact you fiscally, but this is a slow progression,
    usually with some loophole and write-offs.
    But you should also know that the taxes were already established, (unless you live in some imaginary land)
    so any increase would be a fraction of the total.
    And that most taxes in total are from Federal, State, County and/or City.
    So the chance that ONE administration would affect you is likely, but not all.
    Again, this is a fraction of the total.

    And in business terms, you would be insane to change your business model & patterns
    so radically to make up for a 50% margin drop to a bond purchase.
    No, you would continue business as usual and adjust prices and/or resources.

    In reality, your business would more likely be affected by resource prices
    and business drop-off...not through any regulation.
    Besides, most federal regulation is inacted to stop an abuse that affects the macroeconomy.
    (Businesses fire people because of lack of business or bad decisions, NOT regulation)

    See how I use details and underlying principles in realistic terms?
    Forget the stats or why...I don't have time.

    You claim that Obama's adminstration is "anti-business"
    The ONLY thing I've seen that may be seen that way is the pipeline decision. (which I don't agree with)
    And this was done likely not under "anti-business" philosophies, but to appease his green base...a temporary political gimme.

    Or realistically, doing what the conservatives wanted, cracking down on immigration
    which affects all those businesses that hire immigrants for cheap-labor.
    But that's good right? Americans get to horde over those newly open jobs. (NOT...most Americans don't go to those jobs, even if unemployed)
    And companies, which are doing something illegal are prosecuted now.

    Obama's administration has been FAR from anti-business.
    The new rules put in place were to control what is basically criminal or neglectful actions,
    which put us into recession/the hole in the first place.
    But for the most part has been status quo.

    Supporting the auto industry is not anti-business
    Propping up the banks is not anti-business
    Pushing manufacturing is not anti-business
    Continuing the Bush tax cuts is not anti-business
    Encouraging free trade is not anti-business
    Pushing for exports is not anti-business
    Calling China on their money manipulation is not anti-business
    and so on...

    Please name one specific example of anti-business policy or decision
    other than those potentially ambiguous ones I named above.

    And please don't say asking to get rid of unnecessary subsidies is anti-business.
    Oil is making enought profit, which goes right into their stockowners/execs pockets. (not jobs)
    And if you are true Laissez Faire champion, then these shouldn't be in place.
    If you can't do it on your own, you shouldn't be in business. Right???

    Please a realistic and specific example,
    showing the Obama administration as anti-business.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2012
  16. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    Ten years ago I got involved in a partnership with plans to do exactly what I described. We put together the partnership, identified the property, developed plans, arranged financing, purchased the property, and further developed our plan. We put together our "dog and pony show" for the community/community leaders/community organizations, businesses, potential tenants/buyers, local city planners and government officials. Par for the course city planners and government had their issues, which we addressed and presented modified plans.

    We had a three year business plan, time is the enemy on a project like this as the developer as I write this now 10 years later. Did I mention this was California?!? During this process, a group who did not live in the community, did not do business in the community, had no current interests in the community - decided that a portion of the property needed to be designated as a historical landmark. We go around and around on this for about a year, and eventually lost. We have to redo our plan. Now we have new government officials to deal with....then we have the real-estate bubble burst...then we have credit lines frozen/closed - rates dramatically increased...now we have businesses not willing to commit to space due to economic uncertainty...now we have a President saying he wants to double the Cap gains rate (not in the original plan)...etc....etc...etc Sure we took a risk, sure we made some mistakes, but our plan was a good one that would have benefited the community, improved property values, increased the property tax base, provided jobs, housing (one component we built in was 10% of the housing was to be designated "affordable"). Initially we had plans to scout for more properties to do the same in places like South Central LA, Chicago, Detroit, Columbus, St. Louis, Memphis and a few other places. Given the experience with our first property, where we now will be lucky to get back our original investment, and the climate created by Obama - it would be a cold day in hell before we would start another project while he is President. The only hope would be to get a celebrity partner like a Magic Johnson or a relative of a public official who can make the process easier - it is a f'ing shame that in the US it requires that kind of support, you know the kinds of people that the government would deem as worthy. People are not on an even playing field - you either qualify for special treatment or get the shaft.

    Get out of your ivory tower, experience the real world! I remember my experience in Junior Achievement when I was 14, the time spent was more enlightening from a business point of view than my business degree from a major university. Do you have any real business experience to share rather than claiming I am exaggerating???
     
  17. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Wow. Earnings on municipal bonds at 10%?!

    Now I've heard it all!

    Probably not.


    Others have already pointed it out, but I'm still going to say it: Examples would be much better if they were realistic.
     
  18. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    What is the current US capital gains rate?
    What does Obama want the capital gains rate to be?
    What is the California capital gain rate?

    Forgive me for using round numbers to illustrate a point. So, the number may end up being a bit less than fifty percent. Add in the other incremental costs of doing business under Obama's term and you get to 50% - either way the point is you get less business activity given Obama's rhetoric, actions and the current climate of uncertainty.
    --- merged: May 11, 2012 at 11:24 AM ---
    You have to find them. You may have to hold to maturity. You may need to purchase in large blocks. You may need to put in some effort.

    How would you know what is realistic? Have you ever been involved in a real estate development project?
    --- merged: May 11, 2012 at 11:30 AM ---
    Dude, I just did a Google search that took a nano second, and found this municipal bond fund that had a 13% trailing twelve month return!

    Delaware Minnesota High Yield Municipal Bond Fund (DVMHX) | US News Best Mutual Funds

    No need to apologize for being condescending, I have grown to expect it without any response.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 18, 2012
  19. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    I thought you were talking municipal bonds. You know, low-risk guaranteed investments. You're actually talking about high-risk bond funds. It's not the same thing.

    Stop buying bond funds - The Globe and Mail

    A real-estate developer would sooner want to invest in their own projects than hand over the same value to a bond fund. A developer worth their salt would want to take on risk themselves rather than hand it over to a bond fund manager.

    I was talking about investing in a real-estate development vs. a municipal bond. You were talking about investing in a bond fund. A 10% return on a bond fund is achievable (though very optimistic), but there is risk introduced that just isn't there in straight-up bonds.

    You seemed to want to argue that a 10% return with high risk vs. a 10% return with low risk is a no-brainer. Unfortunately, it's not a realistic scenario. There simply isn't a common way to get a guaranteed return of 10% at the drop of a hat.

    Let me know if that's not what you're arguing. Either way, why would a real-estate developer want to switch to becoming a securities investor? Are you suggesting if things get too tough, they'd drop out of the real estate business?

    I wasn't condescending. I was astounded. If my tone rubbed you the wrong way, I apologize. Please try to keep to the core of my response: Your example including a 10% return on a bond is unrealistic (if that's what you meant). You're essentially creating a straw man.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2012
  20. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Twelve years ago, along with a small group of colleagues in Washington DC and California, I took a small non-profit business in California and brought it out nationally. We had to get minor law changes in more than 20 states; I had the lead on that and it took several years to do so. Today, it is the largest non-profit business of its kind in the country, with sales last year exceeding $1 billion. It is has a section 115 designation and we dont pay taxes. I am now on the board of the directors; the CEO and senior staff have a higher salary than mine, but that was my choice. :)

    I deal in facts and the real world. The ivory tower thinking is more apropos to those who can only rely on falsely exaggerated scenarios and cannot present real examples