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Korean Peninsula: Likelihood of conflict?

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by Remixer, Mar 26, 2013.

  1. Remixer

    Remixer Middle Eastern Doofus

    Location:
    Frankfurt, Germany
    Just saw a BBC Breaking News item that North Korea has put its troops on combat-ready status.

    Given that since Kim Jong-un's arrival there has been a launch of a 3-stage long range missile, an underground nuclear test, and an ever-increasing build-up in rhethoric; how likely do you perceive another full-scale military conflict on the Korean peninsula?

    How do you perceive the increasing aggression from North Korea? Or the new military agreement between South Korea and the US, making US military involvement in an inter-Korean conflict mandatory?

    How large or small do you perceive any potential conflict to be? Who would be the players directly involved? How would indirect involvement look like, and by whom?

    Or is it all just an immature spoiled child puffing himself up on the international stage?

    What do you think?
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2013
  2. Charlatan

    Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage

    Location:
    Temasek
    It's hard to read this one.

    My feeling is Kim Jong-un just might be believing his own hype. He might try to launch an attack on South Korea. If that happens, he will get squashed (but not before many innocent people are killed).
     
  3. Freetofly

    Freetofly Diving deep into the abyss

    Remixer I think he is a dangerous manchild.

    You just don't shoot a 3-stage long range missile, perform an underground nuclear test for the hell of it. He is a 5 year looking to be noticed.

    By any chance do you know what China's stance is on the situation?

    I have an artist friend in South Korea that suffers from nightmares. He blames North Korea, as long as he can remember he has not felt safe.
     
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  4. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Nada
    The definition of sword-rattling.

    But he's likely not doing it for it for outside NK, but psyching his people inside.
    Plus purging a few players as an excuse.
     
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  5. the_jazz

    the_jazz Accused old lady puncher

    I agree but have to add that I think that it's for the benefit of the Chinese as well. Remember that Kim's grandfather fought alongside Mao during the Japanese invasion and Chinese Revolution. In the 50's and 60's the North Korean and Chinese political systems were very similar. As the Chinese have moved towards a more open system (at least in economic terms), the North Koreans have been more and more marginalized by their patron state, and they need to send a reminder every once in a while that they're too be taken seriously.

    The Kim government is nothing if not pragmatic, and there is no possible outcome that results in a positive gain for the government by launching any sort of large-scale military action. I think that they'll continue with the minor actions - such as shelling Yeonpyeong Island. But a full-scale invasion of South Korea or any open assault on the US would simply not achieve any reasonable goals.
     
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  6. Plan9 FORMAT C:

    Location:
    This Island Earth
    Sorta Relevant

    TL;DR: No, really... the North Koreans would get their asses kicked.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2013
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  7. Charlatan

    Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage

    Location:
    Temasek
    In practical terms, North Korea isn't going to do anything. But the latest Dear Leader may not be practical.

    You can only poke the lion so many times before he pounces.

    I too think it is highly unlikely that the North will do anything, but there is that slim chance that crazy will rear its head.




    (the US is the lion in this analogy)
     
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  8. Plan9 FORMAT C:

    Location:
    This Island Earth
    Why even include the US? The South Koreans alone would quickly recover from the one-shot initial barrage and then basically vaporize the North because they have the technology and supply lines to keep that kind of fight up.

    The link demonstrates that Big Bad North Korea is an urban legend. They're operating with Vietnam-era weaponry and WW2-era logistics. They can't win shit; it'd be suicide.

    Sure, some South Korean cities would be fucked up, but in the end North Korea would be blown further into the Stone Age.

    Bonus:

    Hey, it's the coming conflict in the Koreas.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2013
  9. snowy

    snowy so kawaii Staff Member

    I'll check with my friend tonight, but the S. Koreans she knows aren't that concerned about it; the younger people frankly don't care and think "that was so long ago." She lived over there for a few years teaching English and still gets the State Department alerts. As of last week, the State Department wasn't overly concerned about getting Americans out of S. Korea, which she thinks will be the true indication of how serious the situation is.
     
  10. Charlatan

    Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage

    Location:
    Temasek
    Interesting to note: the north and south are still technically at war. They never signed a full peace accord, just a cease fire.
     
  11. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    It's not even about that, I don't think. I'm not sure many, even speculatively, would assume that North Korea is anything to seriously worry about. What I think is going on here is a progression towards a more desperate state of affairs. Realize that North Korea, as insular as they are, relies so much so on China for support that any substantial change could spell disaster. Realize too that China has changed significantly over the past several years both politically and economically. China is positioning itself as the world's next superpower, economically, politically, and militarily. They aren't at this point about to suffer a fool like Kim gladly.

    North Korea does have some other important relations with places like Iran, but these pale compared to the significance of China.

    The fact remains: North Korea knows it's in a tight spot. It knows its very restricted leverage is weakening. China is not happy with North Korea's nuclear weapons development, and neither is Russia. Both want stabilization on the peninsula for various reasons. China specifically wants to ensure it maintains its influence in the region. North Korea going all ape-shit will encourage players like Japan to step things up in response, and China certainly doesn't want that.

    So this is an act of desperation. There is a new leader, and so maybe this marks a new shift. It could become volatile. Maybe the new leadership knows its power is waning and it must do something to exert itself. It could, of course, blow up in its face. Maybe this is the beginning of the end for the regime, even if this is only a part of a long game.
     
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  12. Plan9 FORMAT C:

    Location:
    This Island Earth
    I'm secretly hoping the shit goes down in the next decade just so we can flush the North and be done with all this Dear Leader craziness.

    Body count would so be worth it.

    ...

    Baraka_Guru basically summarized the article. The North Korean fist shaking tantrum thing is so tired that nobody believes it and everybody else has moved on to other weapons like buying another country (China>US), espionage and cyber warfare.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2013
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  13. the_jazz

    the_jazz Accused old lady puncher

    You should add the US to that as well since we're technically still in the conflict too.
     
  14. Charlatan

    Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage

    Location:
    Temasek
    True fact.
     
  15. Plan9 FORMAT C:

    Location:
    This Island Earth
    True fact: It's a US Army mechanized duty station rotation where guys get drunk for four years straight.

    Thank god I was a paratrooper and never had to go to that shithole.​
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2013
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  16. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
  17. Plan9 FORMAT C:

    Location:
    This Island Earth
    Well, technically, war has been good for a lot of things. Like the space program. And medical science. And developing the M202, which is pretty much the single best thing ever invented by man.
     
  18. Charlatan

    Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage

    Location:
    Temasek
    But... the booze and kimchi!
    --- merged: Mar 26, 2013 at 11:31 AM ---
    And dragging the US out of the great depression with one of the greatest stimulus packages of all time.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 2, 2013
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  19. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    You make it sound like war is necessary for these things. Your logic is flawed.
     
  20. Plan9 FORMAT C:

    Location:
    This Island Earth
    How the hell else are we going to come up with a four-pack rocket launcher that sets shit on fire? That kinda awesome doesn't come up after a night of smoking dope, strumming the ukelele and engaging in polytransbipangender sex.

    Fuckin' hippies.​
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2013
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