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Politics The 2020 US Presidential Election

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by ASU2003, Dec 31, 2018.

  1. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    And so it begins...

    I created the 2016 thread, so here is the 2020 thread. I was trying to wait until 2019, but it seems like the candidates want to start campaigning again.

    Today marks the 'official' start when Elizabeth Warren decided to run in the Democratic primary. About 23 months before the election...

    Who do you think will do well? Who do you support? Who will you vote against? Who else do you think will run? Is it way too early to deal with this (yes)? What will the big issues be for you and for the country?

    Is there anybody else that I should add to the list that you want to see run for office?


    Confirmed Democrats:

    Elizabeth Warren

    Possible Democrats:
    Bernie Sanders
    Joe Biden
    Cory Booker
    Sherrod Brown
    Kirsten Gillibrand
    Beto O'Rourke
    Joe Kennedy
    Richard Ojeda
    Hillary Clinton
    Amy Klobuchar
    Seth Moulton
    Tim Ryan
    Eric Swalwell
    Mitch Landrieu
    Steve Bullock
    Andrew Cuomo
    John Hickenlooper
    Jay Inslee
    Terry McAuliffe
    John Delaney
    Tulsi Gabbard
    Jeff Merkley
    Kamala Harris
    Mark Werner
    John Kerry
    Martin O'Malley
    Jim Webb
    Julian Castro
    Howard Schultz
    Eric Holder
    Eric Garcetti
    Chris Murphy
    Deval Patrick
    Al Gore
    Jerry Brown
    Marc Cuban
    Tom Steyer
    Oprah Winfrey
    The Rock


    Confirmed Republicans:

    Donald Trump

    Possible Republicans:
    John Kasich
    Paul Ryan
    Scott Walker
    Rand Paul
    Chris Christie
    Marco Rubio
    Ted Cruz



    Possible Green:



    Possible Libertarian:



    Possible Socialist:
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2018
  2. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    I think it’s going to get really weird.

    The next some months is something the historians will be writing about
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. fflowley

    fflowley Don't just do something, stand there! Donor

    I had much more positive feelings toward Senator Warren a year ago than I do now.
    The election is the Democrats to lose. The way to lose will be by running on identity politics.
     
  4. Lindy

    Lindy Moderator Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Nebraska
    My neighbor changed her Jeep's name to Elizabeth Warren.
    Because even though it's white, it says it's a Cherokee.:D
     
    • Like Like x 1
  5. loquitur

    loquitur Getting Tilted

    If Trump somehow implodes and doesn't run, I would expect the Repubs to nominate Nikki Haley.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  6. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    You don’t think they’ll go for Pence?
     
  7. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    Some updates to the list... Tom Steyer said he was not going to run. Tulsi Gabbard announced that she is running. And a few others have started talking about it. I added Nikki Haley, as if she ran the primary on the Republican side would get more interesting. I'm sure there is some 4-star general who could run and make this tougher for Trump to win the primary. Even if it is Pense that decides that he is done being the VP and wants to run, he could make things interesting in the GOP primary.



    Confirmed Democrats:

    Elizabeth Warren
    Tulsi Gabbard

    Possible Democrats:
    Bernie Sanders
    Joe Biden
    Cory Booker
    Sherrod Brown
    Kirsten Gillibrand
    Beto O'Rourke
    Joe Kennedy
    Richard Ojeda
    Hillary Clinton
    Amy Klobuchar
    Seth Moulton
    Tim Ryan
    Eric Swalwell
    Mitch Landrieu
    Steve Bullock
    Andrew Cuomo
    John Hickenlooper
    Jay Inslee
    Terry McAuliffe
    John Delaney
    Jeff Merkley
    Kamala Harris
    Mark Werner
    John Kerry
    Martin O'Malley
    Jim Webb
    Julian Castro
    Howard Schultz
    Eric Holder
    Eric Garcetti
    Chris Murphy
    Deval Patrick
    Al Gore
    Jerry Brown
    Marc Cuban
    Micheal Bloomberg
    Oprah Winfrey
    The Rock
    Steve Bullock


    Confirmed Republicans:

    Donald Trump

    Possible Republicans:
    John Kasich
    Paul Ryan
    Scott Walker
    Rand Paul
    Chris Christie
    Marco Rubio
    Ted Cruz
    Nikki Haley
    Mike Pense
    Colin Powell
    Jeff Flake
    Bob Corker
    Ben Sasse



    Possible Green:



    Possible Libertarian:



    Possible Socialist:

    [/QUOTE]
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Julian Castro, former mayor of San Antonio and Sec of HUD under Obama, announced today. He is an impressive guy and will have some appeal. His twin brother, Joaquín, is a congressman from Texas.

    But ultimately, I think candidates like Tulsi Gabbard and Castro are more realistically auditioning for VP consideration.

    Meanwhile....the first Democratic primary debate is only six months away. :eek:

    How Democrats are changing the primary debate schedule for 2020 candidates

     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2019
  9. Charlatan

    Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage Donor

    Location:
    Temasek
    This is part of the USA's problem. You never stop campaigning.
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    It didn't used to be this way, sure there were long campaigns prior to 2014-2016, but one thing Trump gets that the Democrats don't, is that you need to play to your base. Forget Iowa and New Hampshire, if you don't hold rallies and public meetings/town halls in NYC, Seattle, and San Francisco, you won't get a base of support to protect you from the on-line trolls and to persuade other people as to why they should vote for them. And the time to go to those places is a year before the primary and up to the primary.
     
  11. Charlatan

    Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage Donor

    Location:
    Temasek
    And who is the Democrat's base? I am not sure that is a clear group.
     
  12. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    The Democrats are a leaderless group right now, and there are many sub groups. And I really don't see there being a breakout populist front runner from the current candidates.

    But FiveThirtyEight is using this breakdown:
    1. Party Loyalists
    2. The Left
    3. Millennials and Friends
    4. Black voters
    5. Hispanic voters (sometimes in combination with Asian voters)
    The 5 Corners Of The 2020 Democratic Primary

    (I would put the rich liberals in the Party Loyalist group)
    I would have picked some other categories, but it is a fair assessment.

    Even though they make up 55% of the voters in this country, I have my doubts that they will come together in 2020 if their favored primary candidate doesn't win, or if the candidate has baggage and bad votes (Iraq war, marriage, environment, corporate money...). I also wonder how many people are going to switch their vote from the Republican to Democrat and vice versa. I have a feeling that even two years later, that if the 2016 election was held tomorrow that the outcome would be the same. The Trump fans are just as passionate, and the Democrats are just as passive about Hilary.

    Just like I would have some different categories for the Republicans than:
    1. Moderate
    2. Establishment
    3. Christian Conservative
    4. Libertarian
    5. Tea Party


    Confirmed Democrats:

    Elizabeth Warren
    Tulsi Gabbard
    Julian Castro
    Kirsten Gillibrand
    Kamala Harris
    John Delaney
    Richard Ojeda


    Possible Democrats:
    Bernie Sanders
    Joe Biden
    Cory Booker
    Sherrod Brown
    Beto O'Rourke
    Joe Kennedy
    Hillary Clinton
    Amy Klobuchar
    Seth Moulton
    Tim Ryan
    Eric Swalwell
    Mitch Landrieu
    Steve Bullock
    Andrew Cuomo
    John Hickenlooper
    Jay Inslee
    Terry McAuliffe
    John Delaney
    Jeff Merkley
    Mark Werner
    John Kerry
    Martin O'Malley
    Jim Webb
    Julian Castro
    Howard Schultz
    Eric Holder
    Eric Garcetti
    Chris Murphy
    Deval Patrick
    Al Gore
    Jerry Brown
    Marc Cuban
    Micheal Bloomberg
    Oprah Winfrey
    The Rock
    Steve Bullock
    Marianne Williamson


    Confirmed Republicans:

    Donald Trump

    Possible Republicans:
    John Kasich
    Paul Ryan
    Scott Walker
    Rand Paul
    Chris Christie
    Marco Rubio
    Ted Cruz
    Nikki Haley
    Mike Pense
    Colin Powell
    Jeff Flake
    Bob Corker
    Ben Sasse
    Bill Kistol
    Larry Hogan
    Bob Corker
    Jeff Flake



    Possible Green:



    Possible Libertarian:



    Possible Socialist:
     
  13. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    It’s funny...I’m a mish mosh of types
    As I’m sure most people are

    I like projection of power, keeping global balance
    This includes a strong military but not wasteful or inefficient
    I like productive progressive programs but again not wasteful or inefficient
    I prefer Federal government to State but realize that policy is National but execution is local and needs to be adjusted
    I like the idea of national healthcare but I’ve seen it’s abuses and ineffectiveness at times too
    Etc and so on
    Both conservative and liberal...however mostly situational

    We’re not insular anymore, we can pick and choose and tweak any ideas that other nations have tried...what works, what doesn’t
    Make it work for US

    But I think so many are catering to ideals, dogma, agendas and lobbying that it all gets lost and nothing gets done and put in place.

    Not only that...any idea that’s new is not perfect
    So unwilling to wait for corrections or improvements, we demonize the program
    Then put in opposition that wants to tear to down just because the other “side” started it.

    I somehow want the parties to NOT worry about “sides” or who gets credit or loses face.
    I want them to think about nation first
    Actually, think about the citizenry first
    Or even better use their minds and consider BOTH

    But the debate and process is a crapshoot
    Running on popularity, fears and the new cycle

    It’s almost like we’re spinning a wheel at a casino
     
  14. Stan

    Stan Resident Dumbass Donor

    Location:
    Colorado
    I disagree. If "none of the above" was an option in 2016, it would have won in a landslide. I think there was a fair degree of complacency in thinking Trump couldn't possibly win. That wouldn't happen a second time.

    That said, Democrats need to decide on a less flawed candidate this time around.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    But that isn't how Democracy works. For better or for worse we have the system we have, and the only way to fix it is if more of those "none of the above" people would start showing up and either pushing the candidates to do the right things or helping to elect people that aren't corrupt.

    Trump may have lost a few states if a re-do election was held Nov 10, 2016, but I think he would have likely still won the 270 electoral college votes. Even going into 2020, there are only 8 or so states that can swing either way, and yes, the Democrats do have to nominate someone with experience, but without distracting scandals in their past. I want to see them find someone who can hold bigger rallies and more of them. Not who can hold the most private fundraising dinners...

    A few more people have entered into the race in the past few days. And Ojeda suspended his campaign (I think he is someone any of the candidates should pick as part of their administration though. But the media doesn't know how to cover people outside of Washington).


    Confirmed Democrats:

    Elizabeth Warren
    Tulsi Gabbard
    Julian Castro
    Cory Booker
    Kirsten Gillibrand
    Kamala Harris
    John Delaney
    Pete Buttigieg
    Amy Klobuchar


    Possible Democrats:
    Bernie Sanders
    Joe Biden
    Sherrod Brown
    Beto O'Rourke
    Joe Kennedy
    Hillary Clinton
    Seth Moulton
    Tim Ryan
    Eric Swalwell
    Mitch Landrieu
    Steve Bullock
    Andrew Cuomo
    John Hickenlooper
    Jay Inslee
    Terry McAuliffe
    John Delaney
    Jeff Merkley
    Mark Werner
    John Kerry
    Martin O'Malley
    Jim Webb
    Julian Castro
    Eric Holder
    Eric Garcetti
    Chris Murphy
    Deval Patrick
    Michael Bennett
    Al Gore
    Jerry Brown
    Marc Cuban
    Micheal Bloomberg
    Oprah Winfrey
    The Rock
    Steve Bullock
    Marianne Williamson



    Confirmed Republicans:

    Donald Trump

    Possible Republicans:
    John Kasich
    Paul Ryan
    Scott Walker
    Rand Paul
    Chris Christie
    Marco Rubio
    Ted Cruz
    Nikki Haley
    Mike Pense
    Colin Powell
    Jeff Flake
    Bob Corker
    Ben Sasse
    Bill Kistol
    Larry Hogan
    Bob Corker
    Jeff Flake



    Confirmed Green:
    Dario Hunter
    Ian Schlakman

    Possible Green:
    Jesse Ventura
    Howie Hawkins



    Confirmed Libertarian:
    Adam Kokesh
    John McAfee
    Sam Seder
    Vermin Supreme
    Arvin Vohra

    Possible Libertarian:
    Bill Weld
    Justin Amash
    Tom Campbell
    Jeffery Miron
    Peter Schiff
    Larry Sharpe
    Joe Walsh



    Possible Socialist:
    Gloria LaRiva
    Eugene Puryear
    Elijah Manley
    Jerry White



    Possible Independent:

    Howard Schultz
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
  16. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    The Democrats announced the qualifications for their Presidential Debates that start this summer.

    “Candidates can qualify either by attracting campaign donations from at least 65,000 people, including at least 200 people from at least 20 states, or by registering at least 1 percent in three state or national polls from a list of surveys approved by the party.”
    https://wapo.st/2IfW7qa

    One percent in three polls sounds like a low standard but really isnt if you have little or no name recognition and you cant get the name recognition if you dont make the debates.

    The donations level is an interesting standard. The Democrats introduced an online tool for candidates , ActBlue, that in last year's midterm elections helped those candidates, many of whom were outsiders, raise more than $1 billion combined for their campaigns with a link on their campaign website...all from small donors (average contributions in the $25-50 range.


    Exclusive: Fired-up liberals raise $1 billion on website for candidates, causes ahead of midterms.

    Republicans are apparently hurrying to catch up with their own version of a ActBlue.



     
  17. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    I like the donation method of getting into the debates. I wonder if that is a reasonable number or not for the entry level candidates to reach? Do we know how many donations the declared candidates have yet?
     
  18. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Candidates must file quarterly reports with Federal Election Commission:

    Browse candidates for president - FEC.gov

    Former congressman John Delaney -- $6+ million? (most of it his own money?)
    Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro -- $220k

    You should be able to dig deeper for the number of contributors by clicking the name of any candidate. They are required to list all contributors over $200 (by name and address) but often that data take longer to appear in the FEC database.

    For those who formally announced (and formed a committee) in the last month -- Warren, Booker, Harris, Klobuchar -- their first reporting quarter will be next quarter (Apr-June)
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2019
    • Informative Informative x 1
  19. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    Well, I have been slacking during my travels in the past few weeks. A lot has changed. Hillary is out, Sherrod Brown is out, and Michael Bloomberg is out. Bernie is in, Governor John Hickenlooper is in, along with Governor Jay Inslee. Andrew Yang is running on a universal basic income and is the only one talking about automation taking the jobs.


    Confirmed Democrats:

    Elizabeth Warren
    Tulsi Gabbard
    Julian Castro
    Cory Booker
    Kirsten Gillibrand
    Kamala Harris
    John Delaney
    Pete Buttigieg
    Amy Klobuchar
    Bernie Sanders
    Andrew Yang
    Jay Inslee
    John Hickenlooper
    Merrianne Williamson

    Possible Democrats:
    Joe Biden
    Beto O'Rourke
    Joe Kennedy
    Seth Moulton
    Tim Ryan
    Eric Swalwell
    Mitch Landrieu
    Steve Bullock
    Andrew Cuomo
    Terry McAuliffe
    John Delaney
    Jeff Merkley
    Mark Werner
    John Kerry
    Martin O'Malley
    Jim Webb
    Julian Castro
    Eric Holder
    Eric Garcetti
    Chris Murphy
    Deval Patrick
    Michael Bennett
    Al Gore
    Jerry Brown
    Marc Cuban
    Micheal Bloomberg
    Oprah Winfrey
    The Rock
    Steve Bullock



    Confirmed Republicans:

    Donald Trump
    William Weld

    Possible Republicans:
    John Kasich
    Paul Ryan
    Scott Walker
    Rand Paul
    Chris Christie
    Marco Rubio
    Ted Cruz
    Nikki Haley
    Mike Pense
    Colin Powell
    Jeff Flake
    Bob Corker
    Ben Sasse
    Bill Kistol
    Larry Hogan
    Bob Corker
    Jeff Flake



    Confirmed Green:
    Dario Hunter
    Ian Schlakman

    Possible Green:
    Jesse Ventura
    Howie Hawkins



    Confirmed Libertarian:
    Adam Kokesh
    John McAfee
    Sam Seder
    Vermin Supreme
    Arvin Vohra

    Possible Libertarian:
    Bill Weld
    Justin Amash
    Tom Campbell
    Jeffery Miron
    Peter Schiff
    Larry Sharpe
    Joe Walsh



    Possible Socialist:
    Gloria LaRiva
    Eugene Puryear
    Elijah Manley
    Jerry White



    Possible Independent:

    Howard Schultz
     
  20. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    • Like Like x 2