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Politics The 2020 US Presidential Election

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by ASU2003, Dec 31, 2018.

  1. redravin

    redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

    Location:
    North
    Keeping in mind that I'm not an expert and this might not age well...

    1. The Impeached 45 will do everything he can to challenge the counts in states where he lost and the counts were close. Odds are it won't matter.
    I'm willing to bet in the recounts the challenged ballots will come up more Biden them for him.

    2. He will concede but not until the bitter end and he will whine about it. It will be the most self congratulatory concession ever given. And he will always say the Democrats cheated.

    3. This will not be a smooth transition. The mess he has made will take years to fix. He will refuse to make this easy. He will leave but it will be kicking and screaming.

    4. Nope. Biden will have won the popular vote by a wide margin.
     
    • Like Like x 3
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  2. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    I agree totally, but maybe not number four. In modern presidential elections, what is considered a wide margin? In my mind 20% or better qualifies, but that could be totally unrealistic in modern presidential elections.
     
  3. redravin

    redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

    Location:
    North
    Yeah, wide margin is a matter of interpretation out of 145M votes but Biden is 5M ahead with about 98% of the vote counted.
    Most of the outstanding votes will probably break towards him.
    Which is weird considering that in the past the outstanding votes were usually military and would often break conservative.
    This time they seem to be split 50/50.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2020
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  4. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    My quick search didn't give me the info I wanted, but one thing did blow my 20% margin idea out of the water.

    In 1984 Raygun stomped, and I do mean stomped, Mondale. He did so with about a 18.5 percentage advantage in the popular vote. So in some elections 5% might be viewed as substantial.
     
  5. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    T killed himself by calling military a bunch of “suckers”
    And the brass hates him since he threw them under the bus and dissed them in public/media

    Many of those went for Biden.
    Including military supporters.

    T got many that were worried about the economy
    Which is ironic, since he’s been a huge spender and in relative terms it’s not doing as good and he didn’t have anything to do with the stock market.
    Actually he screwed it up more with the pandemic
    And he lost the trade war he started

    It was all about myth of money and perception

    The real money players invested and voted for Biden.
    It was only laypeople that got convinced.

    Shows you how good an illusion works.
     
  6. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    And here we go...the chaos king continues
     
    • Informative Informative x 4
    • Dislike Dislike x 1
  7. pig

    pig Slightly Tilted

    First, I'm damn glad Biden won this election. I certainly don't consider myself a Democrat - or I traditionally haven't - but between the choices I am grateful that I don't have to navigate another term.

    I am confident that while some isolated cases of fraud may be found (I think they are in almost every election) that morning will be discovered that overturns this. It's happening. Im that sense, I hope that all of the Trump team's legal challenges are laughed out of lower courts with the exception of some of the late ballots kn PA that won't effect the outcome.

    I want all possibility of anyone but die-hard devotees to object in ground of being robbed to be wiped out. I also hope progressives will realize the GOP oligarchs aren't playing, and the centrists in the Democratic Party aren't invested in fighting them. It's time for that proverbial Coffee Party movement to step up, in my opinion.

    I am considering stepping back from other social media and getting active locally.
     
    • Like Like x 3
  8. tecoyah

    tecoyah Illusionary

    1) No, he will try but fail.
    2)No, he will not admit to a loss and yes he will always whine.
    3)Yes it will be as smooth as is can be while angry children cry.
    4)It is not just you.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  9. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    It seems the article isn't showing in the quoted post. Onward...

    The information in that article should be widespread, to let the general public see what Trump and his appointee(s) are doing to undermine Biden.

    One question (info not quite clear in the article), does Trump have to sign the letter before any transition activities can start? If so, this sounds possibly like yet another legal/court battle.

    And it also sounds like yet another situation where Trump would be wise not to draw attention to his activities. But that's not how narcissist Trump will see it.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  10. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    It’s an article in the WaPo
    I’ll add the link later when I get a break
    But you can find it there (quoted it since there’s a paywall)
     
    • Like Like x 1
  11. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    I bet Biden will just let the states handle the charges against Trump. Or maybe they do expect Pence to take over for a few hours so he can pardon Trump before they leave office. Although admitting guilt might be a bit too much.

    But I do worry that the Democrats are trying to unify people who don't want to unify and have been brainwashed into hating Democrats regardless of who they are. A lot of people are saying that trying to compromise with all out racists, homophobes, and those who would cheat to win is not the right move.
     
    • Like Like x 1
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  12. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
  13. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    There were groups, and that includes prominent Republicans, who started organizing against Obama well before the actual 2008 election, they read the handwriting on the wall. It'll be no different with Biden, although the race factor will be largely removed (yes, having a black president infuriated many people).

    I firmly believe Trump did many illegal things at the federal level that are prosecutable. **Personally I would love an investigation into his relationship with Counselori Giuliani because I'm convinced confidential information improperly changed hands. Treason?** But Biden will have many issues to handle, and appearing vindictive wouldn't look good (his margin of victory with the popular vote doesn't exactly show a mandate against Trump).

    Yes, let's hope on the state level, and perhaps actions from the IRS independent of Biden, Trump faces charges.


    I read an article that showed Trump having payments on several huge loans coming due in '21 and '22. Supposedly he does not have the money, and could forfeit several large properties that were used as collateral. I won't pretend to understand financing and commercial real estate, but I do know from the Savings & Loan crisis (the Almighty Raygun, my ass) and the Oil Bust in the early '80s real estate values are only as good as their markets.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  14. cynthetiq

    cynthetiq Administrator Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    New York City
    I have considering getting more active locally. There used to be good moderate Republicans in NYC. They were demolished and demoralized by Trump supporters.

    do no harm, and go out and make the world a better place.
     
    • Like Like x 5
  15. pig

    pig Slightly Tilted

    I have always wondered what happened to the campaign finance charges from paying Stormy Daniels and the other woman to keep quiet.

    When all collusion investigations were being conducted that was always my guess as to what would happen. He'd get popped Al Capone style for the money trail. I still think that's very likely.

    If so, the fall out will be massive for the GOP. They bought in lock stock and barrel and it should be cataclysmic.

    Then again...
     
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  16. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    VERY slowly, we're getting certain key GOP players, saying it's Biden's (like Karl Rove or Adelson)
    Editorial board of Adelson-backed newspaper tells Trump it's time to face reality
    Karl Rove: The 2020 election result will stand -- Don't expect it to be overturned

    It's just that the GOP senators and House members, they're cowering and not saying anything.

    And the ravenous supporters, they're still spouting bullshit. (picking and choosing at their convenience...sure Michigan isn't called...but NC is)
    Fact check: Some electoral maps show Trump leading with 232 votes. They're wrong.
     
  17. cynthetiq

    cynthetiq Administrator Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    New York City

    I want what Elizabeth Johnston, activist mommy is smoking or drinking. It must be some good shit.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  18. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    One thing in the first article jumped out at me:
    Nevada is still counting ballots.
    No, not recounting.
    The first count, still.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  19. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    They still have 63,439 to go... Come on, that is ridiculous.

    Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania are all still reporting new results too. How could they count millions of ballots in the first few hours, but have so much problem with the remaining ones? Maybe they are provisional or something had to be checked.


    It is those House members and the administration saying that there will be a second term that I am concerned with. And if these states slow down the count and recounts, and then the administration ties it up in the courts long enough to prevent the vote from being certified in those states plus Wisconsin by the date the state legislatures have to send electors... I don't want to think it could happen, but Trump has plenty of history of doing whatever it takes to win. And the conservatives have done nothing to stop him before.

    And it plays into why he got rid of the Secretary of Defense and others. It could be why there is a wall around the White House. It could be why they are preventing the transition from starting.


    I mean if I were him and looking at years of lawsuits, tax audits, and very possibly jailtime, I don't think he would care if gaming the system would allow him to win. Even if it caused a civil war or massive riots. Even just a few thousand extremists on either side driving through protest crowds, or spraying bullets into trucks with Trump flags wouldn't be too far fetched. It could get really messy, really fast.

    Let's just hope the process plays out like it is supposed to with the states sending the right electors for who won the most number of votes in those states...
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2020
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  20. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Any means to an end...
    GOP leaders in 4 states quash dubious Trump bid on electors

    Stop the Steal's massive disinformation campaign connected to Roger Stone and Steve Bannon - CNN

    Geez, these guys are like cartoon characters.
    The villains in "Catch that pigeon", including Dick Dastardly.
    Like they come up with wacky vehicles and plans.

    If it wasn't for real, it would be comedic. :confused::eek::oops::rolleyes::mad:

    Thankfully, the state level politicians seem to have a head on their shoulders.
    They might be pissed they we're thrown under the bus for the pandemic. (states for themselves, no Fed help)
    Who knows...thankfully, they're resisting.
     
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