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Politics The 2020 US Presidential Election

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by ASU2003, Dec 31, 2018.

  1. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    You aint seen nothing yet.

    You will likely be bombarded with candidate ads/commercials for the next six weeks right up to the March 24 Democratic primary in Georgia.
     
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  2. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    Well, I will just say that TV ads are not going to help you in the modern era of campaigning. At least not flooding the airwaves. Maybe if you have a really well done ad and it is used strategically, but the way Bloomberg is doing it is a waste of money. He is getting beat by the mayor of a religious Indiana town who happens to be gay. And maybe I spent too much time in the dark corners of the Internet, but I didn't think society moved that fast on gay acceptance in the past 10 years for him to win 1% in Iowa, let alone tie Bernie for 1st. The Democrats need to start learning how to campaigning in the 2020's, not the 1960's.

    Pete does remind me of the 1992 Bill Clinton who was always able to come up with a good answer and explain a policy, including talking about religion, which is one of the big reasons the Democrats have been losing.
     
  3. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    While digitial ads are rising exponentially. campaigns generally still spend more on local broadcast tv and cable to reach most demographics.

    See Political ad spend in the U.S. by media 2018 | Statista

    The fact remains that tv ads , particularly negative ads, work well enough to justify the cost.

    I do agree with you on Bloomberg flooding the airwaves in targeted states but he has a name recognition issue and that will likely help in those states.

    The trend line will continue to shift to digital ads and the flooding will go from the TV screen to smart phone screens.

    In the meantime, you can see candidate spending on TV ads for the 2020 election here along with viewing the ads themselves (searchable by candidate and state)

    Tracking Every Presidential Candidate’s TV Ad Buys
     
  4. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    Political scientists are going to love going through the campaign strategies of the Democrats in 2020 to figure out what worked. I personally think Buttiegeg's strategy (and Yang's) of accepting every interview request, forming a real person campaign in the field, and they do some stuff on-line. Although I don't think any of them outside Trump has a good on-line game (infiltrating forums, social media comments, social media organized events, posting for free in Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist, YouTube videos, Twitter, etc...)
     
  5. pig

    pig Slightly Tilted

    I think we often feel like advertising "doesn't work," but the statistics and science indicate it does. Down here in Carolina I've heard several people that don't like either Buttigieg or Sanders throw out Bloomberg's name. If we have to fight old white billionaire with old white billionaire, at least give me a battle-tested progressive. I'd be pissed if I were Steyer after all he's done to shape impeachment and these primaries, but it is what it is.

    I don't consider myself a Democrat, but I will definitely vote with them. I wish their was a way for my vote to actually matter, but I'll cast it regardless.
     
  6. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    Sanders might make the core Democrats feel good, BUT will he (and his socialist programs) fly with the conservative & borderline Democrats? The undecided? The voters who now realize Trump is a shyster, but are still Republicans at heart?

    Going from the extreme of Trump to the extreme of Sanders could be problematic for enough voter to re-elect Shyster Trump.

    I'm liking what I'm seeing in Steyer. But is he a snowball in hell?
     
  7. redravin

    redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

    Location:
    North
    Bernie isn't a Socialist (I say for about the ten thousandth time) or at least hasn't been one since he became a Senator.
    There is a big difference between a Social Democrat and a Socialist.
    Trust me, my Uncle Sal was a hardcore old school Jewish communist and used to be a fly on the wall listening in to long nights of political conversations with the family.
    Bernie is for all practical purposes a FDR Democrat and is hated by the rich just as much as FDR.
    Does he have a chance?
    He is getting a lot of support with POC and the young which is a good sign.
    The outnumber The Impeached 45's base by a good number and if they feel like they have a reason to vote, they will.
     
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  8. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Most get communism and socialism mixed up and overlap the ideas

    Bernie is a socialist by his own statements
    NTTAWWT
    Because the US has socialist programs and they have their uses. Europe has done it for years and only recently gone more capitalist but still balanced

    But to deny this is hypocrisy either way.

    My problem with Bernie and the Dems is that he’s a GDI with socialist leanings (no problem with that) and he’s piggybacking with the Dems.
    He should have balls enough to do it as an Independent.
    And the Dems are idiots for allowing it, now pulling them to the more extreme Left when the establishment/leadership doesn’t want it.
    (Both in philosophy AND strategic for winning vs Trump and the GOP)

    So the Dems are shooting themselves in the foot AGAIN letting their more left and activist base screw them over in a centrist-right nation. (admit it, we are...NTTAWWT) screwing up chances for wins, especially against gerrymandering, judges and the electoral system. (Currently unbalanced towards the even more corrupt GOP...both are corrupt but the GOP has gotten crazy about it)

    IMHO, Nuff said
     
  9. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    That is not how this works. The left lost in 2000 because Nader ran as a left wing candidate and gave people a protest vote option in Florida and a few other states. The left lost in 2016 because Stein was a far left protest vote in Michigan and Pennsylvania. If Bernie ran as an Independent or had run as a Green in 2020, it would have made Trumps re-election inevitable.

    While I don't know if Bernie can win or not, I feel that this is a generational battle within the Democratic Party. If the election was only voted on by people in the 18-50 demographic, this wouldn't be close. But that means that Sanders and his campaign have done a poor job so far of explaining to people 50 and over why they should vote for him. What will happen in November 4, 2020 when the stock market goes into free fall? While it is unlikely that Sanders agenda will get fully implemented, it won't stop the industries he targets from going down. What happens when gas prices shoot up? Either because the supply drops, or the cartel wants to make Sanders a one-term president.

    Oh, and I have no sympathy for the "Democratic Establishment/Leadership". Their corrupt actions have brought this on. Even without the Russian assisted hack of the DNC, we knew through the hiring and firing of people at the top that they were one-sided. They took for granted to far-left vote..."who else are they going to vote for". Well, this time the choice might be between Bernie and Trump and which one will the moderate centrist vote for?
     
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  10. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    That thought sounds familiar :).

    New campaign slogan:

    Bernie Sanders, damned if you do, damned if you don't.
     
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  11. redravin

    redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

    Location:
    North
    But most people in America support the policies that Bernie has presented.
    Single Payer Health Care has had 60% and over support for decades.
    College education, expanding maternity leave, elderly care, it all tracks.

    The New Deal is primary part of the American ideal.
    The Democrats just walked away from it with Neoliberalism.
    The moderates haven't won an election since Clinton and he only did it because he was from the South.

    We need a populist to challenge The Impeached 45.
    We need a progressive to move the Overton Window back to something that looks like the rest of the world.
    We need a president who won't go along to get along so our children and grandchildren don't wind up in an environmental hellscape.
     
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  12. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    ^^^
    I wish that I could select both agree and optimistic.
     
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  13. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Bernie Sanders’s Elizabeth Warren problem

    This
    Actually, it's both Bernie & Biden's problem...

    Warren is the Dark Horse and she won’t stop running
    It’s not in her nature...and she won’t compromise.

    All it will take is one game changer...
    The response to the virus crisis
    Biden gaffes badly...or Sanders
    Sanders having another heart attack

    Or any dying or hit by health issues
    All of them are VERY exposed to the virus with their campaign dynamics (older people are more susceptible and vulnerable)

    Everyone said Mr. T wouldn’t win too...

    She’ll keep going
    She may win the nomination, you never know.

    Personally, I’d vote for her, if I was a Dem
    And I’d vote for anyone over T.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
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  14. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    And that is the issue. Biden might have a Howard Dean moment at any time (although maybe since it is expected that it won't be replayed millions of times like it was in 2004 that let the DNC and corporate media take down the Progressive candidate). And Bernie is probably healthier and actually has his heart monitored now, but it is a worry and a small possibility that he will have to drop out. And Warren would seem like the best alternative candidate.

    I also like the chances for Warren to win a second term in 2024 rather than Bernie or Biden. Especially when faced against a GOP primary of Trump, Cruz, and Haley.

    The biggest mistake Warren made was with her Medicare for All plan and thinking that she would be able to get it past in her 3rd year after the next midterms. Yes, maybe the Democrats will be able to re-gerrymandered some states, or the demographics will have changed a little in the next few years too, but that is a weird bet to make, especially when people need healthcare now.
     
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  15. ralphie250

    ralphie250 Fully Erect Donor

    Location:
    Jonesboro ga
    was watching the news last night and they had Biden on it. he was speaking about his day and some protestor rushed the stage and security finally took them away.... with that being said why do people do that? if you dont like them ok.... so be it... but you dont have to do something that dumb..
     
  16. redravin

    redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

    Location:
    North

    It's not so much that the protester doesn't like the candidate, in fact sometimes like with Bernie and BLM they know he will be supportive.
    It's a case of getting coverage for what you are saying.
    The cameras are already there, the reporters are there, what you said will be covered.
    You might even get a comment from the candidate.
    Its theater for your cause, trying to reach the most people and cost the least money, except maybe bail if you get arrested.
     
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  17. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
  18. ralphie250

    ralphie250 Fully Erect Donor

    Location:
    Jonesboro ga
  19. Stan

    Stan Resident Dumbass Donor

    Location:
    Colorado
    I wouldn't bet on either or those. Warren really has no path to the nomination, I expect her to think about it a few days, then drop. Hard to know whether she'll endorse anyone.

    Bloomberg ads will turn into Biden ads.
     
  20. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    I doubt Warren will drop out. Either the DNC will push her to keep in the race to help take away votes from Bernie, or she is betting on one of the two not making it to the convention.
     
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