Politics The 2024 US Presidential Election

Once more, we play our game, a game of chess against our old adversary...

I created the 2016 thread, and the 2020 thread on this topic. And I should have made this presidential election thread a few months ago when things really started. But people are jumping into the race left and right now like crazy.

Who do you think has the best shot of winning? Not just the popular vote, but the 270 electoral college votes needed? Or do you think there will be no one that gets to 270 and the House gets 1 vote per state based on which party is in the majority with third party candidates winning a few states this time? Do you think someone else should get into the race?

(*These are the candidates I found so far with some sort of 2024 campaign website. Some are interesting, others are "more" interesting)

Confirmed Democrats:
Joe Biden
Phillip Drake
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Frankie Lozada
Lee L. Mercer, Jr.
Wayne A. Pope Sr.
Christin Powers
Mattie Preston
Jerome Segal
Michael Soetaert
Michael D. Swing
Michael Tillinghast
John Washington
Marianne Williamson


Confirmed Republicans:
Doug Burgum
Ryan Binkley
Eric Jon Boerner
John Anthony Castro
Chris Christie
Walter D. Clapp
Ron DeSantis
Larry Elder
Donald Faulknor
Cherunda Fox
Brian Friend
Nikki Haley
Albert Harshaw
David Herz
Adam Hougland
Anthony Hudson
Will Hurd
Asa Hutchinson
Steve Laffey
Val Paul
Mike Pence
Vivek Ramaswamy
Rollan Roberts
Richard Rogers
Tim Scott
Corey Stapleton
Donald Trump
Lonnie Wills


Confirmed Green:
Randy Toler


Confirmed Libertarian:
Keenan Wallace Dunham
Joe Exotic
Jacob Hornberger
Beau Lindsey
Lars Mapstead
Chase Oliver
Mike ter Maat
Angela Marie Walls-Windhauser


Confirmed People's Party:
Cornell West


Confirmed Constitution Party:
Sheila (Samm) Tittle


Confirmed American Solidarity Party:
Peter Sonski


Confirmed Prohibition Party:
Michael Wood


Confirmed Forward Party:
None


Confirmed Socialist Party:


Confirmed Unicorn Party:
Jasmine D. Sherman


Confirmed Unity Party:


Confirmed Light Party:


Confirmed No Labels Party:
*candidate might be named in 2024


Confirmed Independent:
Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai
James Bills
Marcus Carter
Daniel Imperato
Brittany Jones
Matthew Pinnavaia
Clayton Ressler
Suzzanna Tanner
Emory Vaughn
Sexy Vegan
Kanye "Ye" West
Michael Zayas

 

Generally speaking, esp this early, I see Biden winning over Trump, by a slightly wider margin than in 2020.

If Trump is prevented from legally running as the GOP candidate, I don't see anyone seriously challenging Biden.

BUT...at this point there are many possible variables.

 

This might belong in the GOP thread (as well), but since if affects the eventual GOP nominee, here it is:


GOP requires pledge to back nominee for first presidential debate


RNC chair says requiring loyalty pledge for participation in GOP presidential debates is a 'no-brainer' | CNN Politics


The RNC/GOP is clearly trying to weed out the weak candidates ASAP.

IMO The Big Issue here is
requiring a pledge to support the eventual nominee. Several candidates have said no way. Of course NPD Trump is waffling, mainly because his NPD would never let him support the person who defeats him (which is ironic because his legal problems are understandably causing concern for some of the other GOP candidates).

 

A good summary of the GOP field at the time of the article.

The GOP presidential field is largely set for 2024. Here's where the contenders stand

******

Pence doesn't think NPD Trump should be POTUS again, but doesn't think an EX-POTUS should be indicted.

Christie has been (so far) has the only Repub seriously saying NPD Trump is a crook.

 

I think Biden wins another 4.

I think the GQP has to go through a cycle where Fascist 1 and Fascist 2 take chunks out of each other while a bunch of Fascist Lite candidates waffle between calling them out as ego driven fascists while ignoring the implications of their own policy positions, and we end up with something like the McCain Palin campaign...or...

Jesus if Trump wins the nomination I think Biden absolutely demolishes him and the Dems take the House.

 

I'm hearing an old narrative (right word?) being reintroduced by some assmouths in the right-wing "news media":

If Biden is elected, at his age, Kamala Harris will become POTUS, officially or de facto. Their favorite way to say it is "A vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Kamal Harris as President." It's a coordinated effort to keep fringe Repubs and some flip-flop voters from moving away from the GOP candidates.

The clear message is
"we" should fear the
extreme liberalism
that would occur under
a black woman POTUS.

I also see this as a move indicating NPD Trump might not be as electable as the GOP had hoped.

 

I'm sure that's true. I think i saw something on CNN like that earlier - and coincidentally they just got bought out by a Trump licking asshole.

I personally would be fine, relatively, if Harris had to step up. I just can't see Independents nd Rational Republicans voting for Trump in sufficient numbers.

 

https://truthout.org/articles/watch...ot-indictments-can-bar-trump-from-presidency/

This isn't new news, but it's worth revisiting.

Our founding fathers wrote many laws that are ambiguous. The problem we have now is who enforces them, & how.

The extreme partisanship we are experiencing at the national level, and states levels, pretty much precludes relying on the legislative branches.

We also have deep divisions throughout our judicial system including the Supreme Court where personal political beliefs and fealty often overrides the rule of law.

In an extreme case -- I consider Trump's actions a prime example -- it's easy to support a simple majority vote (SMV) in the legislative branches (namely the Senate) to ban a candidate. The problem is SMV could be easily misused by people with agendas rather than legitimate charges.*

IMO Trump could & should be excluded under the 14th Admendment for several actions. And his inaction while the Capitol Building was under attack on Jan 06, 2021.



* Imagine what Marjorie Taylor Greene would attempt.

 

I don't think the popular vote will be close, but I think the electoral vote will be really close, especially with the third party candidates in the 5 swing states that might have voted for one of the two candidates. likely to win the election.

If it is Biden v Trump, but with West as a Green Party candidate in the general election, it will be interesting to see if he gets more votes than Jill Stein/Howie Hawkins did from the anti-Dem and anti-GOP voters that show up. Or if the 2020 numbers hold and the people did vote against a candidate more than for a candidate. West is more media savvy and walks the talk, and a lot of people are upset at both major parties.

 

I would hope, probably optimistically, that swing voters would realize a vote for a 3rd party candidate is basically a vote for one of the two major party candidates.

I have to admit that in 1980 I could not bring myself to vote Jimmy "Wimpy" Carter or Raygun. Given how well Anderson did, I was one of many voters who stepped outside of the box. But in my defense, sort of, it was also apparent Raygun was going to soundly beat Wimpy.

 

State Officials Told to 'Carry Out Their Duty' by Keeping Trump Off 2024 Ballot

Using the 14th Admendment to keep NPD Trump off the state ballot.

It's a great thought.

It can most certainly can be viewed as doable at the state level without waiting for orders or approval from the federal level. With the knowledge there would be legal challenges.

Is there a progressive state that would use the 14th Adm, and therefore set the stage for an extraordinary legal battle? No.

The final result, most likely a SCOTUS ruling, would be states don't have the right to apply the 14th Adm independent of the federal government.

Edit: I don't like the click-bait headline they used for the article. To call it misleading is an understatement.

 

Trump snubbed as major evangelical group declines to invite him to conference

Hmmm. Is NPD Trump's base fracturing, in ways large enough to hurt him?

In 2020 he didn't pull together voters the way he did in 2016 (admission: I need to research the exact numbers).

In 2024 he might draw in fewer voters than he did in 2020.

How much has NPD Trump's relationship with evangelicals soured?

 

This could go in several threads, but since the comments could affect voting in the GOP primary, & the general election, I'm putting it here.

Which 2024 Republican candidates would pardon Trump if they won the presidency? Here's what they're saying.

I still have clear memories of, and very strong feelings about, Ford pardoning Nixon...against future charges (pure bullshit).

 

I ran across some numbers while looking up other info re NPD Trump. I don't thinks links are necessary. I heard it in the news, and read it in news reports, but until today it didn't really hit me.

NPD Trump, even with his numerous legal problems (and apparent guilt in some cases), has a 30 point lead over Duhsantis, his closest rival for the GOP presidential nomination. It seems the only thing can stop him is his death (natural causes or accidental, of course).

I'm (almost) dumbstruck.

 

The Big Money Behind the Big Lie

This is a really long read and I don't know if it belongs here exactly but I wanted to put it somewhere in politics.

There's a pay wall but I'm getting 3 free per month or so.

 

That's an excellent article, even though Jane Mayer throws around a few comments that she should've backed up with sources. I'm also surprised she didn't make more mention of NPD Trump planting the seeds of voter fraud in the 2020 election shortly after he won the 2016 election.

The good news is most of those investigation & recounts went nowhere (the article was written in July 2021). The bad news is many of them took place at all, & they brought about increased voter oppression disguised as voting secuity.

As always (dead horse beating) I find it interesting we didn't have accusations of "widespread voter fraud" in the states NPD Trump narrowly won.


A digression.
There's an asshole in AZ who adamently defends tighter voting controls (restrictions) because voter fraud was uncovered...one single voter cast an illegal ballot. I'm not sure of his name, white, maybe mid/late 50s, glasses, cowboy hat (psbly only for the cameras?).

 

This doesn't sound good for DuhSantis.

DeSantis presidential campaign is cutting staff as new financial pressure emerges

But let's remember NPD Trump's 2016 campaigns, nomination & POTUS, were total messes.

 

No it dosn't.
Yesterday I saw Ronnie trying to walk back the bennies of slavery ( that's some fucking dangerous rpms on ideological spin bro)
How, it wasn't him pushing this idea it was the American history task force....
Well reports say that the appointees DeSantis added, 5 long term republicans changed the whole game when they showed up and the original 3 reaming on the 'force' didn't have the pull they used to....

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/...ts-raise-concerns/PIVMCNCXJZHOZPG2JW34D27UMA/

I don't see anything wrong with worshipping a tree. At least it's real.

 

I'm trying remember the name of the black educator (male, around 60), possibly a board member, who shows up in the news defending the new standards.

Public schools in Texas have been sanitizing history for decades. The MO for handling "upsetting" history, as I recall it back in the 60s & 70s, was just don't mention it or do so in passing. I believe that's also known as lying by omission.

If the trend in Florida spreads, ignoring or barely mentioning controversial history could be replaced by flagrantly spinning it.



And let's not forget how States are using funding to twist the arms of State Universities to avoid/move away from "WOKE" teaching.

I'm also certain private companies are using funding to influence universities in a negative way.