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Politics The Donkey in the room...the Democrats today

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by ASU2003, Mar 1, 2015.

  1. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Update on the upcoming debates....Gabbard makes November threshold, Klobuchar makes December

    One (Last?) Candidate Qualifies For The November Debate

    The clock is ticking for Democratic presidential contenders hoping to make the fifth debate on Nov. 20— just 6 days left to qualify — and the sixth debate on Dec. 19. And a new survey of the Iowa caucuses by Quinnipiac University has given two candidates the final qualifying poll they need. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard got 3 percent support in the new poll, which qualifies her for the November debate, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar earned 5 percent, putting her on the December stage. By our count, this means 10 candidates have now made the fifth debate and six have qualified for the sixth, so let’s check in to see where things stand for the other candidates....​
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/11/democrats-may-surprise-us/

    “The Democrats may surprise us on impeachment”

    True, we’ve been used the them whiffing on some of the grittier activities for awhile

    Here, they’re doing a good job doing it “by the book”
    Even though they don’t have to, Constitutionally

    Sticking to the facts
    Building a case
    Making sure it’s a true violation of law
    Disclosure of findings
    Clarifying the process
    And so on...

    They really don’t have to do anything
    But they’re undermining the opposition’s arguments and positions by making it straight and clear cut

    Slowly (although relatively fast) gathering evidence from substantive witnesses

    The only thing I wish they’d do is punitive actions against those defying a subpoena

    There has to be a respect for those authorities
    And consequences for not appearing
    (Btw, once they appear, the witnesses can spin, decline, declare the 5th, etc...but they should appear and answer some things on the record)

    Listen, the little folks have consequences if they don’t appear...the same should apply to those above.

    But keep up the good work
    Hopefully it will amount to something
    Either on trial or at the polls
     
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  3. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
  4. Shadowex3

    Shadowex3 Very Tilted Donor

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...-every-standard-due-process-it-will-backfire/

    Meanwhile again what 80-90 percent of the country thats not in the almost 100% rich white postgraduate holding cult sees is exactly the opposite. The democrats are violating every single standard set not just in every prior impeachment, including of their own President Clinton, but which form the bedrock basis of the entirety of post-enlightenment justice systems.

    The accused is not permitted to have legal counsel present at depositions.
    The accused is not given access to evidence and documents, unlike what you claim.
    The accused is not permitted to cross-examine witnesses.
    The accused is not permitted to call witnesses for the defense.
    And on top of all this selective misconstrued leaks are constantly used as political weapons.

    This is not "by the book", it's a book burning. In the eyes of the average person on the street this is one of the single most illegitimate legal proceedings in US history. Donald Trump is being impeached after he reached out to Ukraine, per a lawful Clinton era treaty, about a criminal investigation into Biden's son that was quashed by former VP Biden using his position to blackmail the Ukrainians into firing the prosecutor or they would lose vast sums of foreign aid.

    Minority Americans were already approaching 90 percent rates of viewing the regressive left as a "serious problem" for the country even before all of this started. They were already deeply troubled by the return to the era of Emett Till with the Kavanaugh fiasco, and even moreso when Mueller confessed in front of a former federal prosecutor that he rejected the concept of someone being innocent until proven guilty.

    The wholesale naked abandonment of any remaining pretense of legality and legitimacy is not going to go without consequence.

    For years now the DNC has been increasingly seeking the destruction of every single value that underlies post-enlightenment democracy. Civil political discourse, peaceful dissent, due process, it's all going out the window. This will backfire when the rest of the country decides to start playing by those same rules and that beating people with bike locks and brass knuckles just for disagreeing with them on twitter is ok. It will backfire when a Democrat is in office, or nominated for a position, and they are held to their own standard that an evidenceless witnessless accusation... more than that an accusation in which the named witnesses actively refute the claim.... is an automatic conviction of guilt. It will backfire when their standards that you can hold an impeachment with a completely partisan group, banning the defense from having counsel present at the proceedings, disclosing no evidence, allowing no cross-examination, forbidding any witnesses for the defense, and leaking whatever you want are used against a Democrat in office.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2019
  5. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Sorry @Shadowex but this isn’t a court case
    An US impeachment is totally at the discretion of the House (and thus the majority)

    Most of the things being done are the same that were established for both the Clinton and Nixon inquiries

    And this isn’t even an impeachment yet.

    The opposition has been given the rules
    And access to the panels

    There are no lawyers necessary
    Just like the previous

    They have offered opposition chances to speak they have refused

    They have accepted ALL documents and media from the opposition

    And your “90%” isn’t what most other media has stated, so this is an exaggeration
    Likely the fairest is 538’s aggregate of all polls

    Approval for the impeachment (and inquiry)
    Has averaged continuously positive for it.

    Sorry, but most think what Trump did was wrong
    And criminal...even more so than an impeachment
    (B

    If impeached, his trial will be done by the Senate
    Right now, I’d say this is like a Grand Jury
    Just recommending a prosecution, if found necessary

    Don’t worry, your boy will get more than enough support in the Senate
    And remember the vote is fully political
    Just hope the GOP hasn’t worn down by then and throws him under the bus.
     
    • Winner Winner x 3
  6. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Yep. You stated it well.

    Despite Trump and others ignorantly complaining about no "due process" or other "rights" being denied, the Democrats have given Trump and House Republican far more transparency and opportunities to participate in the"inquiry" process than is required by law.

    Trump and House Republicans will have even more "rights and opportunities" than required by law or the Constitution when the House Judiciary Committee begins the process of develop and voting on Articles of Impeachment.

    Key Provisions in the Resolution Provides the President opportunities to participate
    • The resolution establishes opportunities for the President or his counsel to participate in impeachment proceedings held by the Committee on the Judiciary, including to:
      • Present their case and respond to evidence;
      • Submit written requests for additional testimony or other evidence;
      • Attend hearings, including those held in executive session;
      • Raise an objection to testimony given; and
      • Cross-examine witnesses.
    • If the President unlawfully refuses to cooperate with Congressional requests, the Chair shall have the discretion to impose appropriate remedies, including by denying specific requests by the President or his counsel.
     
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  7. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    FiveThirtyEight: Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?
    "whether to begin the impeachment process": 51.0% support -- 44.4% dont support

    Real Clear Politics: Trump Impeachment Inquiry: Support/Oppose
    48.8% support impeachment inquiry -- 45/0% oppose impeachment inquiry

    Polls on support/oppose Articles of Impeachment in the House and/or conviction in the Senate wont be meaningful until after the House Judiciary Committee begins the formal process in a public setting.
     
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  8. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    Take every point you make, and apply it to the Bill Clinton impeachment. How do the actions of the Republicans hold up?
     
  9. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    As an aside, a look at the demographics of the representation of the two parties in Congress, starting with the "freshman class" elected in 2018....

    [​IMG]

    Diversity on stark display as House’s incoming freshmen gather in Washington

    and more on overall representation in the House:

    The percentage of white men as a share of House Democrats is set to decline from 41% to 38% as a result of the 2018 election.

    Meanwhile, the percentage of white men as a share of House Republicans is on track to rise from 86% to *90%.*​

    ***

    As to the above claim of "Minority Americans were already approaching 90 percent rates of viewing the regressive left as a "serious problem" , there is nothing to support this.

    Trump's job approval ratings among Black voters is in the 12-15% range and in the 25-30% range among Hispanics.

    And among Asian Americans, Trump could be turning Asian Americans into reliable Democratic voters

    Minorities like LGBTQs are in the 90% range Democrats.

    And as to religion, there are only two "Christian" religious groups that are majority Republican - Evangelical Protestants and Mormons; Mainline Protestants are a plurality by a slim margin. Minority religions (Jewish, Hindu, Muslim, etc.) are overwhelmingly Democrat

    [​IMG]

    Party affiliation - Religion in America: U.S. Religious Data, Demographics and Statistics

    If "Minority Americans were already approaching 90 percent rates of viewing the regressive left as a "serious problem" one is left to wonder how Democrats flipped 40 seats in the House sand six governors this time last year and won two governor elections in the last two weeks where Trump actively campaigned for the Republican and Trump himself won by 30% (KY) and 20% (LA) in 2016.

    edit: added above table.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2019
    • Winner Winner x 1
  10. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    The problem with demographic politics is that it fails in the Midwest where whites still outnumber minorities and will for a long time. The Democrats and the left need to realize this and start coming up with a better message to attract respectable whites and more reasons besides healthcare and the environment why they should vote for them.
     
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  11. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    This may be true with demographics of race. But other demographics - gender (m/f), religion, location (urban/suburban/rural )- were what led to Democrats flipping 40 seats in the House and six governorship last November and winning the governor races in two "red" southern states last week where Trump actively campaigned and won by 30% (KY) and 20% (LA) in 2016; Virginia also flipped control of the state legislature to Democrat last week. Exit polls suggest the most important issues last year and last week were healthcare (and Republican candidates supporting gutting the ACA and rolling back Medicaid) and the issue of Trump. All of these recent elections suggest women, particularly white suburban women, who voted for Trump in 2016 ran away from Republicans in 2018 and last week.
     
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  12. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    I don't mind that trend, but I worry that Trump was elected by the infrequent and non-voters coming out to vote against Hillary/Democrats in 2016. Yes, a lot has changed, there are more young voters who were 16,17 years olds in 2016 that can now vote, but you don't flip Louisiana and Kentucky unless something big is happening, and where I am living in Ohio and Florida I don't see it yet. Maybe the moderate middle is fed up with the corruption and the lies, but doesn't want to actively support the Democrats or publicly support them. And maybe this will change really fast once the Democrats have a single nominee and start unifying. I also haven't had time to look at voter turnout numbers in KY or LA to see if support dropped off or if the Democrats just got more people out to vote.
     
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  13. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    This is a followup from the probe thread, but specifically addresses the Dems dynamics and actions
    Are Dems bungling their impeachment strategy?

    It gives both strengths and weaknesses perspectives to the impeachment strategy.

    Frankly, I think the Dems are blowing it.
    They're going back to their typical wishy-washy non-hardline plays.

    There are arguments in the article that think its a strong play...but I disagree.
    This politeness decorum will not get them what's needed (and why I think Obama lost so much)
    Ya gotta play hardball, it's all most of the GOP understands right now.
     
  14. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    How much is too little/enough/too much is very difficult to judge.

    Early in the probe Pelosi took a cautious approach, with good reason. If the voting public gets tired (sick) of hearing about Trump's wrongdoings, and the Republicans play it correctly, there could be some serious backlash against vulnerable Democrats.

    Every article that I've read, pro & con, on the limited scope makes me think of how politics is controlled by (re)election concerns.
     
  15. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    What Democrats Can Learn From the Forgotten Impeachment of James Buchanan

    Interesting
    So it gives hope to the Dems either way

    Me, I hope they remove him
    First...it will stop the damage
    Second...it will quiet down the crazy from the WH
    Third...potentially he can be arrested and go to jail

    Bonus...he’ll hate it because he’ll be the first removed
    His name in infamy...first removed forever

    But hey...a kid can dream
     
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 2
  16. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    • Agree Agree x 1
  17. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    I have heard from many of the people who didn't want her to get the job as speaker, that she is doing an excellent job of managing this. I worry that things would be different if there was a novice speaker in the house. I just hope she is teaching the other representatives how to do the job though.
     
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  18. redravin

    redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

    Location:
    North
    I'm not a big fan of her moderate politics but she is a good speaker.
    She knows how to get shit done and how to keep it all together even under serious pressure.
     
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  19. Chris Noyb

    Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & don't criticize. Donor

    Location:
    Large City, TX
    She's a good Speaker of the House, but
    I find her to be a weak public speaker.
     
  20. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Here is another example of how House Democrats continue to enact important and popular legislation while the impeachment process moves forward. In this case, protecting us older TFPers from workplace discrimination.

    Yesterday, the House passed H.R. 1230, the Protecting Older Workers Against Discrimination Act, a bill that would restore protections against age discrimination in the workplace.

    As Americans are working to an older age in order to pay their bills and maintain their living standard, discrimination against older workers has increased.

    A 2018 survey by AARP found that 3 in 5 workers age 45 and older had seen or experienced age discrimination in the workplace.

    The bill was needed, even with existing laws protecting older workers against discrimination, as a result of a decision ten years ago by the conservative Supreme Court. Last year, conservative Republican Chuck Grassley (R-IA) described that Court decision as "harmful" and said it "made it easier for businesses to discriminate against individuals based on age."

    All 227 Democrats and 34 Republicans voted for the bill; 154 House Republicans voted against it.

    http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2020/roll021.xml

    More: Finally, U.S. House Will Address Disastrous U.S. Supreme Court Ruling On Age Discrimination
     
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