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Politics The Energy question - how does it affect the nation?

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by rogue49, Sep 3, 2012.

  1. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Now this subject fascinates me.

    This subject is a direct and indirect effect on our nations throughout the world.
    People and industry need it.
    Nations negotiate & war for it.
    Companies profit from it.

    It affects your economy, costs, infrastructure
    short-term bottom-line, your ability to do something...and long-term global plot arcs.
    Micro-economic, Macro-economic, political and more...

    Wood was our first...forests were cleared not only for agriculture, but also for fuel & warmth.
    Coal helped introduce the industrial age.
    Oil refined it...became the big commodity.
    Now natural gas is coming up again.
    Nuclear hasn't been fully or safely realized in complete comfort.
    Alternatives haven't even been truly touched in relative terms.

    Europe is in need...they are looking to Russia and Middle-East even more...
    China is starting to invest into Africa for resources...
    North America is about to have a big change (not just the US, but likely Canada too)

    This may all change the realpolitik dynamics.
    What we truly vie for.
    It will be interesting to see how this changes things...and how they won't too.

    Remember, it's not just the government and national infrastructure that may be affected,
    but Big Oil is going to try to control this...keep the reserves to themselves,
    turn any excess into exports to Africa, Europe and otherwise to profit from.

    Natural Gas has gone down to record lows...but will this truly help the everyday Joe??
    Will Oil commodity go down...or will it stay inflated and even if so, does that translate into gas prices?
    Will the US have less of an onus to involve themselves in the Middle-East and otherwise,
    becoming more of Woodrow Wilson's pre-WWI non-intervention philosophy.
    Will Europe become the "bad guy" of resource need again? (anyone remember Colonization??)

    It will be interesting to see this dynamic...it will be decades to come.
     
  2. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Between oil reserves and fresh water, Canada will become a kind of Saudi Arabia in the near future. Or at least it would if it played its cards right. That is yet to be seen.

    You neglected to mention China's growing economic interests in Canada's tar sands. Half of the foreign capital coming into Canada from China is in resources. This also includes steel and other infrastructure resources.

    China Oil Sands Investment: Confusing Rules Scaring Away Big Money, Report Says

    The problem with natural gas, despite its abundance, is its low price. Low prices are barriers to building a natural gas infrastructure. (Also, fracking regulations---which should be both reasonable and necessary---are a cost-related challenge as well.) Consider Canada's problems with the tar sands until recently. Oil prices were too low to justify widespread extraction and refining due to the higher-than-average cost of processing from crude bitumen, which is the case for the majority of our reserves. The more recent high prices have turned the tar sands into a boon: it now makes sense to make further developments and to go ahead with increased production and processing.

    What will happen with natural gas? Not a whole hell of a lot without subsidies and other government support.

    It's quite ridiculous when you have "drill, baby, drill" for oil, all the while the American nation sits on an embarrassment of riches when it comes to natural gas.

    The U.S. still lacks a comprehensive energy policy. It's a mess in large part due to Big Oil and the lax barriers between government and business influence.

    The problem isn't so much in what as it is in how. Fix the how, and many of America's energy problems will go away.
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2012
    • Like Like x 1
  3. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    No, I didn't know about China's interest in Canada's tar sands...very interesting.
    I'm wondering how it will translate into geopolitical policy and trends.

    While I don't suspect that the US will totally withdraw from the global theater,
    it will allow more discretion...and keep some military-industrial neo-cons from being tempted as much (as we did for Iraq)
    It will more likely be in a scenario like Obama played in Libya, most recently.
    Allowing NATO and Europe to play their hands more directly...while the US supports from a resource/logistics/big guns context...not feet on the ground.

    Then the reverse may be true, as it may be from what it's sounding like Canada too.
    Perhaps North America starts becoming the focus for resource-hunters' political games.
    Does this mean that we'll have THEM sticking their noses into our business and elections, etc...??
    Although, unlike the Middle-East...fuel resources aren't our only or prime commodity...so the impact/dynamic may not be as signicant.

    And if so, if other nations are finally showing more fuel capability...and technology reduces the need for fossil fuels...bit by tiny bit.
    Does this mean that the Middle-East will have less to play on...or will have to develop alternative industries?
    Will they be less of a factor on the Global stage?

    I love this shit.
     
  4. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    The US does need a real energy policy and vision for getting to reducing energy use through efficiency and design, while having more individuals generating power. In 1 month, I will generate a large percentage (~80%-120%) of my power requirements through solar power. It isn't that hard or costly once you have low power electronics, well insulated roof and windows, good blinds to keep the sun out, and other ways to reduce power. It also helps if you don't use much heat or A/C, but if the building code forced homes to have geo-thermal heating and cooling, it would help a lot.

    Second, most people think of only their own energy use though. Once you get hundreds of millions of people using power the same way, it adds up quick, and getting that much power/fuel will give certain people too much power and influence. That is what is going on, and it is hard to build up enough non-polluting energy sources. Even if people what to buy into small generation to offset their use, but don't have a good location, it isn't possible to install panels on a big box store or some farmer's field. Have wind turbine co-ops or investment groups that pool their money until they get enough to build one and then return the money they get from power generation to the individuals based on the percent they own as a dividend each month.

    A lot of people aren't really impacted by the tar sand mining, fracking, or mountain top coal mining, but I have seen all of them, and the problems they are causing but aren't forced to pay for is a big problem.
     
  5. fflowley

    fflowley Don't just do something, stand there!

    There's way too much for me to write about here. It's a topic I read and think about a lot, but my typing skillls aren't up to the challenge.
    But I get a very interesting assortment of articles delivered electronically weekly from Scientific American. You can go to their website and sign up for the updates on Energy and the Environment.
     
  6. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    I think this will change the world moreso than any other tide.

    The US may have it's boon-doggle to pay for bills.
    Is it the right way or right reason to do it? No, but money is money.
    In many ways, the same benefits the Middle-Eastern nations have had...
    • lower gas rates
    • lower business costs
    • increased infrastructure
    • SS paid more
    • Heathcare paid more
    • Safety net paid more
    • Less subsidies
    • More education supplements
    • Hopefully be rid of Ethanol, and allow corn commodities to go down...and thus food prices overall. (that was a shit idea we had...)
    The only thing is ...they have to be careful of the same trap ...don't spend too much or let go of your efficiency, just because of all the influx.
    And unlike those countries, the oil players aren't national entities, they're corporate...so much profit will go to Big Oil.

    This will reduce the power, influence and culture in Russia, Brazil, Africa and many Middle East nations.

    This may decrease the upgrade to alternative fuels and energy.
    It also might increase the consumption of high gas vehicles.

    We'll see some big dynamic changes with this...and it's happening faster than people expect.

    Will the US become even more powerful?
    Will other nations resent it and attack in one way or another?

    I don't know about you...but I'm watching this like a hawk.

     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2012
  7. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    From the article...
    What world are they living in? The US uses 17-19 million barrels each day right now. I would be great if we were able to get down to 11 million a day (and we should be down at 2-3 million if we were smart and worked on really fixing the issue).

    Consumption > Oil statistics - Countries Compared - NationMaster

    Lets say 6 million barrels a day is a generously low number... We will use the 42 gallons per barrel number from Barrel (unit) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    6,000,000 * 42 = 252,000,000 gallons of gas. At $4 a gallon it would be $1 billion dollars being sent out of this country a day or $365 billion a year, up in smoke and pollution.

    And how long will this fracking thing last? Fracking is hard and energy intensive enough as it is right now, what will it be like in 20 years when all the easy locations have been drained?

    I wonder if they think that inflation won't happen? Or that in the past 20 years things haven't went up in price. And unless they think that the world economy won't improve in the next 23 years, or maybe they know that people will switch off from gas & oil in large numbers (I have started doing that).
    --- merged: Nov 12, 2012 at 12:41 PM ---
    We Need To Find 36 Million More Barrels Of Oil A Day - Forbes

    I will add this article too. There was a reason we went into Iraq, and it didn't matter if all of their oil is going to China since it should reduce the Chinese demand from elsewhere. They are guessing that there is oil off the East coast, since they haven't found it there yet, and in the arctic, and that is very complicated for just a few barrels. Lots of other easy oil fields are being drained or are out.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 19, 2012
  8. snowy

    snowy so kawaii Staff Member

    ...so, moving to Canada, eh.

    Too bad we can't really live where we want to given what my husband does. We want to be in B.C.

    I agree Canada is holding a lot of the cards. We've seen that as the price of oil goes up, the tar sands become more appealing.
     
  9. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Not to open a can of worms or anything, but Canada also happens to have a shit ton of the world's known sources of uranium, potash, aluminum, diamonds, nickel, gold, platinum, etc. Oh, and we produce a fuckwad of hydroelectricity and natural gas too.

    It's a good thing our economy does a lot in services as well (over 70% of the economy, compared to Saudi Arabia's 36%). That keeps us even more robust.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2012
  10. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    The other side of the equation is conservation.

    The regulations adopted last year, with support of the domestic auto industry, of doubling vehicle emission standards in 10 years will result in saving 2 million barrels/day.

    To a lesser extent, the Green Button program adopted with support of the utility industry, will allow consumers and businesses to better manage energy use. The program is already being adopted by utilities faster than predicted.

    And a carbon tax is not out of the question before the end of Obama's second term.

    On fracking, the long term impact of deep well injection of billions of gallons of fracking waste (brine and other toxins) is still unknown; the worst case scenario being significant pollution of groundwater.
     
  11. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    When will we see big trucks have minimum mpg numbers in the 30s? Cars should be able to get 60mpg today, and 100mpg if they used lighter components and more aerodynamic designs.

    But not using gas is the best option to bring down the amount of gas we use.
     
  12. Charlatan

    Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage

    Location:
    Temasek
    Canada is ripe for take over.

    A Red, White and Blue Dawn is in its future.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  13. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    More likely Mexico...
    Smaller southern border then. :rolleyes:
     
  14. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    You are wrong. It will probably be a red dawn, with five golden stars.

    It will start slowly at first, and then the cultural and political might will be too much for us to bear.

    Ah, who am I kidding? It's started already....
     
  15. snowy

    snowy so kawaii Staff Member

    Don't forget timber. ;)
     
    • Like Like x 1
  16. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    It also keeps your resources longer...

    I hope that we keep increasing our efficiencies and alternative fuels,
    not just because it will make the older fuels fade in the long-term,
    but it will allow us to not consume our own and they can kept low cost and be exported for benefits.

    Those "not ready for primetime" countries can use it until their infrastructure can allow the alternatives...this allows them to grow easier and faster too.