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The Iran problem: Of sanctions and sabre-rattling

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by Baraka_Guru, Jan 8, 2012.

  1. roachboy

    roachboy Very Tilted

    the insanity of this should be patent to anyone who looks. if it is in fact the case that israel is preparing for war, it's entirely about shoring up support for the ultra-right wing coalition government that enables that idiot netanyahu to remain in power. i am personally not quite ambivalent about this apartheid regime--i would prefer to see bibi fall. the fundamental problem is the nature of the coalition that allows that asshole to govern. one of the main things that's happening now is that the ability of the israeli right to assume that its ideological viewpoint remains dominant in sectors of the united states that to now have been fundamental to its support has come undone---witness the hysteria surrounding the bds conference this past weekend at penn or the nonsense that has attended the new regional correspondent from the nyt (i cant remember the name) talking with ali abuminah, who is behind electronic intifada. its pretty clear that the various problems that attend israeli colonialism in the west bank and gaza are becoming different kinds of problems for the israeli right and that this idiocy about iran is a way for them to manage it.

    you'd think that the more sensible route would be to be all about supporting any and all efforts to deal with assad in syria....but no...this because everyone knows (and if i know, everyone does) that the lynchpin between iran and support for, say, hamas is syria. thing is that it's dicey for the israelis to play cards overtly with respect to syria, so you get this displacement. it would be lunacy for israel to actually go to war against iran--not least because of israel's total isolation diplomatically. what israel has been doing with the assassinations of people connected to the iranian nuclear program is demonstrating that they are already able to penetrate iran and take out people who are perceived to operate in sectors that run contrary to israeli interests. were the government not run by such utter fucktards, you'd think that'd be adequate. but no....

    THE problem is israeli colonialism in the west bank and the ongoing brutalization of the people of gaza.
     
  2. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Well, it's not like Israel stands alone.

    Here's is a general sampling of why this wouldn't be unilateral politically, if not militarily:

    Mitt Romney:
    Rick Santorum:
    British foreign secretary William Hague:
    Thankfully, the Obama administration seems to be taking a decidedly non-Bush stance and would rather take more sensible route with Iran. The EU seems to be on that tack as well. They need to talk Israel down from this.
     
  3. roachboy

    roachboy Very Tilted

    i can assure you that a war against iran would make the disasters in iraq and afghistan look like seurat paintings.

    first because it is self-evident that the united states backed the shah to the nines. so the united states is associated with savak--which it trained. second because, geographically, iran is not at all like iraq. nor is it like afghanistan. but mostly....its fucking stupid and the consent is simply not there.

    my expectation is that the consistent construction of iran as the Evil Other since in late 70s should function as a basis for consent---but at this point, i don't see it. do you?
     
  4. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Any country that is nearby Iran is threatened by their attitude and grasp for nukes.
    This includes even Russia & China who's nearer in proximity than what the US has to worry about.

    Israel is just doing what the US did back in the day with Russia and Cuba...pre-empting a potential real threat with a potential strike.
    Theirs is true saber-rattling, with the shit to back it up...not some rumor or vagaries.

    Personally, I don't consider what Israel is doing really colonialism...
    Various nations attacked them in the past, Israel kicked their asses, captured land...why should they give it back, really? Be nice guys?
    I don't think I've seen the US, France, Britain, Russia or otherwise do it...much less if someone attacked them.

    Let's face it, the only reason Israel is isolated, is because they are a Jewish state in the middle of a Muslim region.
    I really don't think Israel would care otherwise, but for others hostility to them...or desire for their land and resources.
    (now...for real, I don't have any beef with Islam...and I'm Jewish, but I'm not "for" Israel...I'm speaking Realpolitik here)

    Of course, currently they are more isolated globally than before, because the other G20 nations are playing both sides
    and Netanyahu being impatient and militant...pissing off most of the big players, especially the US and Obama.

    You're not going to get Israel to back off on the settlers...Hamas is by their own definition anti-Israel (their choosing, no one forced them)
    and it's too much in Israel's self-interest and population to develop what they hold.
    No more than the US did to the Indians or other per-industrial states before this...
    Those countries that lost hold on their colonies was due to distance and logistics...these areas are in Israel's backyard.

    No way you're ever going to see it otherwise...it's a pipe-dream to think of two states scenario,
    and I haven't seen any other country do it in the past, not of appended nearby areas. (Not that I recall)
     
  5. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Can we say a third? An Israeli attack on Iran (especially a unilateral one, especially a baseless one) is further justification for Iran to seek military security. Why don't we just give Iran more reasons to seek a nuclear deterrent. Hm?
     
  6. roachboy

    roachboy Very Tilted

    that's obviously the case. yes.

    insofar as rogue49 is concerned:
    (a) there's no actual evidence that iran is pursuing a nuclear program.

    (b) it is of no consequence what you consider the israeli colonial occupation of the west bank to be. it really isn't. it is empirically a colonial occupation. and this while being aware of the history surrounding the 67 war.

    (c) the attempt to divert problems that attend the policies of a particular nation-state onto religious grounds is laughable. we've had decades of this bullshit. we're done with that now. the problem is not the nature of israel as a state---the problem is that the policy choices that this state has made with respect to the occupied territories have driven it into apartheid.

    and it's simply false, this implication that there is one mind about the meaning of israel as a jewish state. there never was, if you know anything about the actual history of zionism. the problem is that the wrong kind of zionism is dominant politically. welcome to the ongoing nightmare that is the israeli right.

    (d) the idea that there's nothing particularly incompetent about netanyahu indicate that you don't know what you're talking about. it's hard to take your points seriously. any of them, if this is really your position. the whole of the israeli press disagrees with you. the history of bibi's career speaks against you.

    (e) the settlements have nothing---at all--to do with hamas in the way you say. you have it backward---if the settlements were not there, hamas would have no traction. the problem is the settlements. and what attends them. period. the only way toward peace is for israel to dismantle them. but under netanyahu, they're expanding. but netanyahu is in a coalition with settler parties. his support is collapsing. therefore iran. its not rocket science.

    (f) israel is isolated because of choices that it has made. think gaza three years ago. no really...think about that.
     
  7. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    1. Most believe it, seriously…including taking the time/energy/effort/money to whack their centrifuges
      Although we may have a “Iraq/
      WMD” scenario, its unlikely.
    2. Whatever you may call it, they aren't going to be going…it's going to be a slow absorption of the areas.
      Like I said, I haven't seen or can recall any other nation willingly give back nearby areas.
    3. Religious conflict is a real attribute. Whatever you may think of the true philosophies of a Jewish state or its people, the perceptions/beliefs/rhetoric of much of the populations and leaders from surrounding states must be accounted for.
      They are hostile in part, due to this bias…if not other things.
    4. I didn't say that there isn't incompetence from Netanyahu, my point of his horrid diplomacy skills in the global context, is a point of his lack of skill and use of mostly ego.
      My facts are fine, don't presume.
    5. Hamas is an entity unto itself, they are only leveraging the anger…as they always have. But if the settlements didn't exist, they would still define themselves as Anti-Israel. Now the population in general may flow away from Hamas’ control and/or influence…but this is not Hamas’ identity itself, only they can change their ideals, and I don't see it changed.
    6. Israel is isolated for a variety of reasons, only one of which is their choices.

    You need to be a bit less excited about this...that's how this whole mess got started, passions.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    U.S. officials seem somewhat resigned to the idea of military action against Iran:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/17/us-officials-iran-sanctions-military-action
     
  9. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
  10. MSD

    MSD Very Tilted

    Location:
    CT
    "Look, if you hold off this Iran thing until after our election, we'll give you some new toys so you can murder civilians in Gaza more creatively and efficiently than ever before."
     
  11. EventHorizon

    EventHorizon assuredly the cause of the angry Economy..

    Location:
    FREEDOM!
    so what would happen if iran pulled an "ok, if it bugs the world that much for us to have nukes, i guess we can stop"? to me, them getting nukes is like that one facebook photo of that kid who photoshopped himself to look huge on one arm but forgot to do the other one.
     
  12. pan6467

    pan6467 a triangle in a circular world.

    We definitely are not winning any friends in the muslim world when we allow soldiers to walk off base and kill innocent people. I think the world may start seeing Iran as the sane one. IF I were President, I'd have the military turn the soldier over to local Afghan authorities to try and invoke their punishment on him. I don't care the reasoning. Just like the Marines pissing on the corpses, just like the ones in charge of burning Korans, Abu Gharaib.... and so on.

    You may think that is radical and unwise BUT if anything with Iran does happen it will most likely bring Russia and China in on their side and I think it'd be very tough if we had NO Arab allies willing to fight with us because we supported dictatorships and the Arab world takes all our military misconduct over there and blows it up beyond our control. If we do not punish these soldiers and bring them home or have right winged idiots supporting what they do and get on the radio and make excuses for them... we have a whole religion pissed off and thinking we maybe what the enemy says we are.

    Rogue made some great points. And you add on to the fact that we (our soldiers represent what the world thinks of us) allow soldiers to piss on dead, burn Korans, walk off base and KILL innocent people.... then Abu Gharaib.... people here can downplay it all as "nothing" to worry about, but we should be. Now we are giving weapons to a country that in that region and part of the world is taught kills innocent people, because of religion????? Iran standing up against us and Israel right at this point, may actually make them heroes to the Arab world.

    We are far enough away that we don't think we can be touched by any of this, but.... 9/11 proved we can be. Security hasn't gotten that much better ask the people living in border towns along Mexican lines. If the Mexicans can crossover, how hard would it be for the drug cartels to help terrorists cross over for the right weapons and money?

    Call me a fear monger and I have brought that up before here and been called worse and treated like I didn't know anything. But if I'm Iran, Al Quida, whomever... I'm looking at doing just that. WTF, people don't give a damn about protecting the border, the drug cartels are running Mexico and especially the areas around El Paso, wouldn't be hard to pay them in weapons and money to help them (the terrorists) out. That way we go into Iran, we just activate the terror cells that have crossed over.... see how "we" handle attacks here at home while our military is over there. Say what you will, but if you do not believe this is a serious possibility... then you live in denial.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2012
  13. Remixer

    Remixer Middle Eastern Doofus

    Location:
    Frankfurt, Germany
    pan6467

    You have no idea what you're talking about.

    1. The Arabs hate the Iranians with a passion, and see them as worse than the sand under their flipflops.

    2. The Americans are already almost-universally hated in the Muslim world. This has been the case since your close friendship with Israel began. Iraq only helped this hate grow.

    3. If Iran attacks Israel, the Arabs will be split along geopolitical and economic lines. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia, Palestine and possibly Turkey and Jordan would celebrate it, maybe by joining in. Saudi Arabia and the GCC countries, the economic powerhouses in the region, would be undecided. They hate Israel, but they also hate the Iranians. At the same time, they get to live superluxurious lives because of their very close economic cooperation with their main oil-customers, the West.

    4. Your efforts as "President" would be fruitless until the moment you sever all ties with Israel (which, by itself, is instant political suicide) and your foreign policy isn't ridiculously hypocritical.

    It's already too late for the US. You're too invested in a particular side, and will hence be the target of "Muslim" hate for decades, if not centuries, to come.

    What you really should do is to stop antagonizing your domestic Muslim population with your cultural and national retardation. They're your friends, and could be vital in fending off attacks.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  14. MSD

    MSD Very Tilted

    Location:
    CT
    They did that in 2003 and the only evidence to the contrary is the CIA saying "they're building nukes, we have the evidence right here on this laptop that nobody but us is allowed to see. Trust us on this one."
     
  15. Joniemack

    Joniemack Beta brainwaves in session

    Location:
    Reading, UK
    The American Way.
     
  16. roachboy

    roachboy Very Tilted

    Israel, Iran and America: Masters of their fate? | The Economist

    i think this about sums it up, yes?
     
  17. pan6467

    pan6467 a triangle in a circular world.


    DID you read anything I posted that this is a supposed reply to? Where did I mention any other Middle Eastern country? I mentioned Al Quida. I mentioned we should turn the soldier over to Afghan to stand trial and not come back here (too late for that).

    I am well aware of how Israel ties have caused hatred in the region for us, also how we put in puppet governments in certain nations. All I was stating and perhaps I didn't make it clear, is that certain news items could be more antagonistic to the region and thus get the region just a tad bit (sarcasm here) more upset with us. To where civilians who may have been borderline are more willing to help Al Quida and Iran. No where in my most recent post did I say Iran would find help in other countries (except perhaps Syria).

    How is what I posted antagonizing to domestic Muslims? The fact I stated we are overseas and we have illegals coming over and it is a possibility that sleeper cells (and that could be any nationality, race, religious fanatic) coming over looking for a reason to "get back at the US." I could see Al Quida doing it. The drug cartels in Mexico, are not going to give a damn money is money, weapons are weapons.

    I do not know why you found the need to get all defensive about my post. If it offended you in someway... i apologize, HOWEVER, I STAND BY MY OPINION.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2012