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Politics The Probe

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by rogue49, Oct 29, 2017.

  1. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    See George Conway's reaction to Trump's acquittal — CNN Politics

    Great video embedded within

    And this is from a conservative
    Although a Never Trumper
    and supporter of the new conservative opposition groups. (Republicans For Law, etc)

    Much make a very interesting marriage, considering his wife...geez

    But I agree with him most of the time
    He’s right on the money

    BTW, I suspect that this will NOT be the end of this thread.
    There will be more crimes
    More probes, investigation, inquiries, subpoenas, etc

    And there might even be another impeachment
    (a new and unique thing that Mr T could be “proud” of)

    Hang on, folks...the wild ride ain’t over yet.
    Sadly so
     
  2. ralphie250

    ralphie250 Fully Erect Donor

    Location:
    Jonesboro ga
    i read today that Trumps approval rating is at an all time high..... I personally think that after all this impeachment stuff will get him reelected..
     
  3. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member Donor

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Actually, it really hasn’t budged, it depends on the poll.

    538 is a good poll aggregate...and skews independent/conservative.

    He’s stuck around 43% approval (give or take a bit)

    And 52% disapproval (give or take)

    Although, many of those that “approve” don’t like him.

    Impeachment didn’t affect it either way, radically.

    It depends on who they pick to oppose.
    And if he fucks up more.

    I put my dollars on the fuck ups.
    He’s incapable of stopping.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  4. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Trump's approval rating is at an all time high on one poll.

    On an average of all major polls, he is still deep underwater.

    FiveThirtyEIght: 51.9% disapprove -- 43.7% approve
    Real Clear Politics: 51.8% disapprove -- 45.2% approve

    The net negative approval is significant. In the above two average of polls, Trump is at a net -6 to -8.

    Obama was only in the mid-to-upper 40s in approval at the same point in running for reelection but his disapproval was also in the mid-to-upper 40s so his net was at -1 at the worst.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  5. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    National polls are meaningless when it comes to re-election and the electoral college. And while I still think there are only one or two outcomes that net Trump a win, it isn't going to be a slam dunk for the Democrat to win either.

    While I wasn't a huge Hillary supporter, I felt more confident that she was going to win (even with all of her manufactured baggage) than any of the current candidates. The Trump campaign in 2016 was an unorganized mess. This time they are already running a national campaign with lots of money and super-pacs behind it. And I wouldn't be surprised if the foreign actors would get involved again, but a little more secretively this time. They might not worry as much as they were about a Hillary Presidency, but they are enjoying seeing the US in the mess we are in and not strong enough to defend ourselves.
     
  6. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Yep. National polls are meaningless in head-to-head match-ups of presidential candidates but national polls do have merit if they are issue oriented and provide a sense of how voters feel about particular issues or about particular candidates.

    There are some match-up polls (Trump vs Biden/Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg) in key swing states...

    Michigan
    Pennsylvania
    Wisconsin

    These are the three traditional Democratic states that Trump won by less than one percent that turned the 2016 election.

    In all of the above, Trump is losing to both Biden and Bernie but this early in the campaign, they dont have much meaning.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. redux

    redux Very Tilted Donor

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    • Like Like x 1