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Politics Who's Gonna Win?

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by issmmm, Sep 25, 2011.

  1. Random McRandom

    Random McRandom Starry Eyed

    In the end, I think it's the massive ground game of the Obama campaign that puts him back into the seat. Early numbers indicate they trounced Romney's ground game just over 4-1. Whatever happens in this election, anyone running in 2016 would be smart to look at the POTUS' ground game model.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    OK, folks
    Here are your "favorite" pundits calls...let's hold them to it after the vote. :D

     
    • Like Like x 1
  3. Random McRandom

    Random McRandom Starry Eyed

    WHA????

    what happened to Rove and his "well over 300" prediction? I think someone is worried. All that super-pac money and his involvement will make even the republicans hate him if/when Romney fails.

    I'm in the 303 Obama camp, but 1980 proved everyone wrong. For me this election smells more like '00 or '04 with the Dems retaining. Some late polling shows independents are now breaking for Obama which is bad news for Romney if it proves accurate.
     
  4. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Actually, if you've been watching Karl Rove's website throughout the whole campaign,
    he's been one of the more reasonable and moderate pundits predicting decent numbers throughout.
    The fact that he's giving these numbers out is that he understands that Romney got an incredible uphill battle
    and if Romney does win, it will more than likely be a squeaker...

    It's actually given me some respect for him over the past 3 elections, while he does lean GOP, he's also realistic.
    Although, there is a difference when he's live vs. what he writes...what he puts down "on paper" is usually his true numbers,
    what he does in front of a camera tends to be more rhetorical.

    I don't mind a person leaning, we're all biased...it's whether they are firebrand or not...I hate that shit.
    I want a reasonable & realistic obeservation and opinion.

    If I wanted hyperbole, I'd watch Limbaugh or Nader.
    Both make me cringe.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  5. Random McRandom

    Random McRandom Starry Eyed


    Fair enough, I guess I just haven't seen his writings. What I see on the tube makes me cringe when he talks, actually, anyone from the Bush era makes me cringe but they don't make me cringe as much as Romney/Ryan. What's the scoop on Ryan's race in Wis.? I've seen stuff on Huffington that some advisors have leaked out a plan for him when he loses, much like the Palin bit around the same time in '08. Could it be possible that Ryan loses the V.P. and his seat at the same time? (crossing fingers helps right?)

    I think PA is firmly blue despite the GOP attempts to paint it red, especially given the fact that they claim CA. is also going to go red... that whole bit sounds strangely familiar and just as wrong as it did back then.

    I think NC is going to narrowly stay blue based solely on early voting numbers (last I saw on the 4th gave Dems a double digit percentage lead) and Fl. is going to narrowly go red, although it could go blue. NH goes blue. Ohio goes blue. VA is the hardest to call and I also think Wis. isn't as close as the GOP claims.

    :shrug: Gonna be a long night.
    --- merged: Nov 6, 2012 at 10:14 AM ---
    MERGE:

    Also, what's up with Romney campaigning today? It reeks of desperation and I'm not sure they thought this whole thing out. Taking resources away from ground game to hold a rally is a dangerous move. It could work, but I don't see it doing much especially given the long lines we'll have all over the country. They want to ramp up the enthusiasm card, but it may bite them in the ass.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 13, 2012
  6. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    REALLY?? You're seeing NC go blue? Most are saying it's a light red. But I haven't been watching the early voting.
    It's FL that's is the one that's teetering back & forth...some red, some blue, some tied... It could go anyway.

    I agree with you on PA, I don't know why the GOP is spending time on it.
    And they're just looking for a decoy/red herring in CA.
    If I were them...I'd focus on FL, CO, VA and NH...maybe IA.
    Too much has been given to OH...but that's the tipping point for Romney beyond the ones I noted...

    Of course they are desperate, the "powers that be" spend a billion + on the GOP.
    They aren't known for being forgiving...although considering their choices...they didn't have much to choose from.
    They ousted in the primary the ones the most likely to win...leaving the crazies and Mr. Etch-A-Sketch.
    Now...they are working against the wind.

    Obama's team didn't miss anything...they built up a huge ground-game. The number of offices Obama has in comparison to Romney is significant.
    They didn't give away any of their money to any other candidate.
    The only true mistake was Obama not being revved and underestimating the audacity of Romney in the first debate.
    But once that weak link was revealed...they turned up the flame and didn't take anything for granted anymore.

    Then the trickle death of the economy keeping on improving bit by bit
    and Mother Nature's involvement by showing a contrast between them...
    All of this slowly pounded on Romney.

    They are desparate...because as one of the chart notes...Obama has 463 ways of winning...Romney has 74.
    And the polls no matter who says...have trended to Obama lately.
    What do you think Romney's friends at the top 1% going to do to him if he doesn't win??
    They aren't going to just forgive and throw business his way.

    If he loses...I'll make a $10,000 bet that he'll be changing Bain's name.
    He may be able to still be a CEO and rich, but he'll want to make them forget.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  7. Random McRandom

    Random McRandom Starry Eyed


    Well, on the 4th, I was seeing early voting numbers in NC at 43% Dem to 31% GOP. Granted, the majority of GOP is a traditional voting sect that likes Tuesday, but here and in Florida, the amount of early votes could once again demolish the GOP. IA should firmly lie blue, but they have a unique demographic and so it's hard to say really. Wis. could be close given the way they voted for Gov. and reps, but I think the Jeep ad destroyed Romney there and in other rust belt states. I only wish that Obama would have pounced on the fact that Romney's father set up a deal with the Chinese to send jobs and production over there in the '70s but they know what they are doing so I can't second guess them too much. The jeep controversy is probably the main factor of this campaign, it's more damaging than even the 47% comments. OH may be closer than even Quinnipiac calls, but it's still going blue.

    I think CO will go whichever way VA goes, which is an obvious route for Romney, but even with those two, he'll have an uphill battle if he can't gain IA or OH, esp. since I see Minn. and NH firmly in the blue.

    If Romney doesn't win, he'll board his private jet, take a vacay in the Caymans and then hopefully come up for review and punishment for his violation of the Ethics in Government act. Knowing him though, he'll just launder more money while laughing at everyone else with his smug wife standing beside him acting like she can't stand to even touch "normal" people.

    Romney won't face much backlash, he'll make sure his binders full of workers get the blame while he scoffs at the poor people and their "ignorance".
    --- merged: Nov 6, 2012 at 11:26 AM ---
    Get ready for the circus. True the Vote has been denied in some OH counties, and tons of electronic voting stations are changing Dem votes to GOP votes in Cleveland, Toledo and Dayton.

    Something smells.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 13, 2012
  8. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    The Senate is safe!

    Democrats have picked up three Republican seats - Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts - and highly vulnerable Dem was reelected in Missouri.

    Republicans might pick up Virginia and Montana...but there is now no way for Rs to win the Senate.

    Thank you Tea Party candidates in IN and MO!
     
  9. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    And Obama Wins!

    Colorado, Florida, Virginia and a few others are still up in the air...
     
  10. Bodkin van Horn

    Bodkin van Horn One of the Four Horsewomyn of the Fempocalypse

    I am somewhat surprised at how pleased I am that Obama won. I'm going to try to stay up to hear Romney's concession speech, mainly because he allegedly was so confident in his campaign that he didn't write one.
     
  11. samcol

    samcol Getting Tilted

    Location:
    indiana
    stock market down, gun sales up.
     
  12. Random McRandom

    Random McRandom Starry Eyed


    OOOH the black boogey-man is sooooo dangerous! I mean, oh shit, we lost but we refuse to believe it along with all the other facts and will just cry about it and propagate hate because that's SO much better than trying to adjust our thought process.
     
  13. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    That the stock market is down today shouldn't come as a surprise.

    That gun sales are up...um...I guess by now shouldn't come as a surprise, because one should get guns before the Second Amendment is replaced, right?

    But seriously: the current state of the stock market has more to do with factors outside of any American president's immediate control.

    It's the overall uncertainty; it's not an indication that Obama is a failure.
     
  14. samcol

    samcol Getting Tilted

    Location:
    indiana
    no one's refusing to believe in the sense that it wasn't a legit win. i just thought it was interesting tell of how the business community feels about obama, and the fear of gun bans are still in the air.
     
  15. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    The Dow is up more than 75% since Obama took office. An announcement this morning from EU that European countries expect economic growth to slow, even in the powerhouse Germany, has much to do with the Dow's one day downturn. The other factor is business fear of more gridlock, not Obama alone.
    --- merged: Nov 7, 2012 at 1:16 PM ---
    The loss is not simply a bad candidate; it is bad (extreme) public policy positions of the Republican party.

    Look at exit polls by voter ideology:

    24% of voters were self-identified liberals; 35% conservative, and 41% moderate. There is nothing about Republican economic or social policies to attract moderates.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2012
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  16. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Both the Dow and the S&P have fared better under Democratic than Republican presidents.

    These short-term knee-jerk reactions post-election are typical. If Romney won, the market may have ticked up instead being that he was perceived as "business friendly." That says nothing, however, about what would have happened after four years of "Six Faces of Romney."

    If Romney positioned himself as a centre-right conservative much like Stephen Harper did in the last federal election in Canada, he probably would have won. But that would have required positioning himself and the Republicans much more closely to the Democrats on the political spectrum, and we can't have that, can we?

    He tried the "I'm a moderate" schtick during the debate, but by that time he was grasping at straws.

    It's clear that the true Republican moderates are utterly marginalized at the moment.

    The interesting thing will be to see whether the party will jettison the extreme elements or if it will further radicalize and seek a way to garner attention as shameless populists.
     
  17. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    If Romney positioned himself as center-right, he never would have won the nomination.

    Ah....those never ending primaries where they fought in front of the country almost weekly from Jan - March on who could more more extreme.
     
  18. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Oh, right! I forgot!

    You guys have so many crazies down there.
     
  19. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    And they are all out buying guns today. :eek:
     
  20. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Do they still call them guns? I thought they called them "freedom telescopes."
     
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