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Politics Ukraine and Putin's power grab

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by rogue49, Mar 3, 2014.

  1. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
  2. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Probably Ukrainian rebels trying to provoke a conflict, especially since Russian has been involved with previous Ukrainian crashes.
    They want to pull Russian in...
    Same reason likely for the rockets going over the border into Russia some days ago.
     
  3. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
  4. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    It's been confirmed that one American was on board.

    Now it's a question of whether pro-Russian rebels were indeed behind it and whether they were enabled by Russia.

    U.S. accuses Russia in downing of plane - CNN.com
     
  5. redravin

    redravin Cynical Optimist

    Location:
    North
    The conversation between the rebel and the Russian intelligence officer puts it in Putin's court.
    He is in the position to be able to deny actually doing it but he's still going to have to do something about taming the rebels.

    With the hundred AIDS experts getting killed this is not like when the US shot down the Iranian jet liner.
    It's not going to be something that can be settled with money.
     
  6. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    The difference, I think, has more to do with terrorism vs. a paranoid naval officer (depending on what account you believe).

    I don't find a comparison to the Iran incident very apt on this aspect alone, mostly regarding how the situation should be handled.

    But the loss of those important people is certainly devastating.
     
  7. redravin

    redravin Cynical Optimist

    Location:
    North

    It isn't a good comparison, I was just using the last time a government was responsible for shooting down a passenger plane.
    It can't just be written off as terrorism, no matter how hard Putin tries.
    There are too many ties to the previous shooting down of planes from the days before that, one of which was positively confirmed as coming from the Russian side.
     
  8. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    There was also this (in Ukraine as well, coincidentally): Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Have a look at this: Putin's Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism | World Affairs Journal

    Once the investigation unfolds, I don't think Russia will come out clean.
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2014
  9. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    And as the rebels finally start releasing the bodies...and Malaysia offers up the black boxes.
    Is this strong enough for the conservatives??? Is this "Leadership" enough?
    Likely not, knowing them...they never give credit where credit is due as far as Obama is concerned. (or anyone "not their own"...:rolleyes: )

    But it looks like the US is taking a stand even more firmly than Europe...and getting some results.
    Hopefully, this will turn out better...and some get a "lesson learned"
     
  10. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    As long as Europe is dependent on Russian, oil, gas, and other resources Putin will get away with whatever he wants to do. The trivial sanctions announced by Obama are a joke. Obama does not even appear to understand what tools he has to use to break Putin. During the cold war it was an arms race - today it is all about resources. When the US and Europe get over the "carbon is going to end the world as we know it" thing, and start pumping, drilling, fracking, mining, etc. like there is no tomorrow, Putin will have the upper hand. And Putin is smart enough to use his power until it get uncomfortable, pull back, and repeat - continually making incremental gains. Obama and the liberal media laughed Romney off of te debate stage when he said Putin and Russia was the biggest challenge we face.
     
  11. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    You underestimate a couple of things: 1) Putin's need to maintain the status quo regarding the energy market for Russia, and 2) the impact of sanctions on the already shaky Russian economy.

    The first point doesn't need much analysis, as it's somewhat obvious. The second point I think is easily overlooked. Russia's economy has been headed for crisis for a while now. Russia's billionaires are getting hit and hit hard, both as a result of the tanking economy and sanctions that have thus far been applied. They're losing money. Alisher Usmanov, Russia's richest man, for example, has lost 15% of his wealth so far this year. Leonid Michelson, the gas magnate, has lost wealth in a similar fashion.

    Russia loses investments each time something happens as a result of Putin playing his strongman card in the Ukraine.

    Putin cannot "get away with whatever he wants to do." The natural law of cause and effect will see to that.

    As long as Putin keeps this up, the Russian economy will suffer, sanctions or no sanctions.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2014
  12. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Agreed.
    And even now...Russia is losing billions...and a Billion means a lot more to Russian than it does to a nation like the US...
    Everything's relative.

    Putin Misses Global Rally as Micex Erases $28 Billion

    The question is whether Putin will blink or not.
    Does he picture himself more like Stalin who was willing to go it alone and submarine his people
    ...or another "strongman" Russian leader, but understands his standing is based on others.

    Basically, how insane and cold-hearted is he...and how much is his position is stable against other power-players in Russia.
    Stalin was willing to kill anyone and everyone to secure himself and his vision.
    Others are not as willing...and may back off.
    Can he survive this??
     
  13. Shadowex3

    Shadowex3 Very Tilted

    The US is currently the top oil producer and exporter in the world, just thought I should point that out.
     
  14. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    There is the long game and the short game. Putin in my opinion is playing the long game, the US and Europe are not.

    China is a player. Putin has leverage.

    Russia-China Natural Gas Deal to Set LNG Price Floor, BofA Says - Bloomberg

    It is sad that I have more confidence that Putin knows what he is doing than in my own President. Obama is a social worker, at best an academic - he is in over his head and he has no one on his team who knows and understands business.
    --- merged: Jul 23, 2014 at 6:03 PM ---
    I made reference to the cold war and how it was won. At the time the US had the largest military and we still entered into an arms race. Now, we are in a different type of cold war that involves natural resources (actually the leverage of natural resources). Putin feels increased power with Europeon dependence on Russian resources - I suggest Europe and the US take that away - I suggest increasing production to deflate prices, truly having an impact on Russia's wealth. I suggest a crushing blow rather than empty b.s. sanctions. Either do it right or don't do anything!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 30, 2014
  15. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Looks like Putin is doubling-down on the crazy... :eek:

    As Ukraine Forces Make Headway, Russia Is Said to Step Up Role

    Launching artillery across the border into the Ukraine, building up heavy weapons near the border
    and supplying the rebels with even heavier equipment.

    Now, it starts getting hairier...and both sides, because supposedly, the Russian oligarchs are starting to worry more about their financial asses (uh, assets)

    I'd say, it's up to Europe to really kick it up a notch...stop trying to play it both ways.
    The US is already engaged (except for military, a point we don't want to get to...)
     
  16. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    I not normally one for conspiracy theory's but it was reported that Obama was on the phone with Putin when the passenger jet went down and that it was Putin who informed Obama while they were on the phone - imagine the call -

    Obama - We are going to expand our sanctions on Russia - this will send you a message about how serious we...
    Putin - Can you hold on a moment.
    Obama - Putin are you there, this is serious stuff..
    Putin - hey, Mr. Obama, I hear that a passenger plane was just shot down - I am not saying I authorized it, that we did it or any thing, but you can take your sanctions and stick them up your a$$.

    Crazy requires crazy - when dealing with a person who could possibly authorize the downing of a passenger plane, that person needs to believe that you would do the same times 10. President Obama does not have what it takes to deal with a guy like Putin - doesn't even know the language of being an alpha.
     
  17. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Well, I don't know if crazy requires crazy. (that would have been McCain instead...)
    But I think someone of Obama's nature is going to trust, then act after being sucker punched.
    It's not a 3-strikes your out type of thing...all it takes is one foul play to know who's being the dick. Obama is not a sucker.

    Besides, the commercial plane downing was obviously an accidental shooting by the Ukrainian rebels.
    They were gunning for military air vehicles. They're just in CYA mode now.

    Obama's difficulty is he needs to get the rest of the world, especially Europe, to back up the sanctions.
    Otherwise, they're going to be in another placating mode like they with Hitler long ago. (Godwin)
    China is trying to make bank off of its northern neighbor. So they aren't helping.

    Putin’s Crime, Europe’s Cowardice

    Putin is a bully who will push until he knows he can't get away with it anymore.
    Military isn't a solution...unless the US somehow is able to arm the Ukraine. (but it can't be a direct conflict)

    This whole thing is going to be a slow burn.
    But just like Russia sooner or later collapsed in the Cold War, because it didn't have the resources.
    Putin will be in the same scenario...it's just that it's a long play. Russia doesn't have the bench to play hardball too long.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2014
  18. Shadowex3

    Shadowex3 Very Tilted

    Godwin's law doesn't apply. We're discussing a repressive government leader who appears to be consolidating totalitarian power domestically and cultivates ethnic nationalism as an excuse for invading nearby countries. That's a legitimate historical comparison.
     
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  19. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Although Putin seems to be building up...Europe may be turning around to do something.

    Grieving Dutch minister made Europe re-think Russia sanctions

    My question is this, in all sincerity...why does Europe have to get to this point??
    You'd think they'd be wary of this considering their history. And act quick.
    But, that was over 60 years ago...a new generation is relearning the lessons.

    Is this why the US is the "World Cop"?? Sure, we're nosy & presumptuous SOBs...but at the same time, they let the US do it.
    It truly is like a cop...you don't want him around, getting in your biz, being pushy...but you like it that he's confronting the thugs.
    It's a weird dynamic.
    At least, that's what I observe.
     
  20. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    More indication of how this can all bite Putin in the ass.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/31/business/energy-environment/energy-companies-rethinking-russia-after-new-sanctions.html
     
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